Q3 Earnings Update This week is when earnings season starts to pick up as Netflix - NFLX headlines the reports. Up until this week, 28 companies in the S P 500 have reported earnings. Considering the fact that earnings growth is only expected to be 2.1% according to FactSet’s numbers, looking at exp
Buybacks are surprisingly controversial. You wouldn’t think buybacks would be such a big deal because they are just an alternative way to give excess cash back to shareholders. However, they are blamed for the lack of productivity in the economy and juicing EPS numbers. If firms buyback stock instea
Stats On The Tech Sector I think the technology sector is the most interesting sector because most of the top firms are in it and because it is driving earnings growth. We will look at some charts which show the direction of the sector. The chart below shows the secular upward trend in net margins.
Bullish Streaks The stock market was down slightly on Thursday, but the amazing year for stocks continues. The chart below shows the maximum drawdown for stocks in each year. This year, the biggest decline in the S P 500 has been 2.8% which is the second lowest maximum drawdown ever. The Investors I
Fed Doubles Down On Heightened Inflation Expectations In Minutes The Fed’s Minutes were released on Wednesday. There wasn’t much new to digest. The Fed seems to be locked in with its decision to raise rates a quarter point in December. The market agrees with the Fed as there’s an 88% chance the Fed
Global Monetary Policy The chart below is unique because it shows 9 central banks, giving a more complete picture of the liquidity being added to the financial system. As you can see in the description, this includes the expectation that the ECB will taper to 30 billion euros per month for 9 months
Powell At 52% The latest update on the Fed chair odds is Warsh is at 30% and Powell is at 52%. Clearly, the decision is coming soon as the odds that anyone outside the top two are picked are falling. The higher Powell’s odds go, the more bullish it is for stocks. I wouldn’t say
This year, the two monetary policy aspects we've been focused on the most are President Trump’s decision on who the Fed chair will be and what the ECB will do with the CSPP (corporate sector purchase program) and the PSPP (public sector purchase program). The big decisions are both going to happen i
Twelve companies from the S P 500 are reporting earnings this week. The results will start coming faster next week which is why I said that was the beginning of earnings season. This means FactSet’s chart of bottom up expectations has moved to tracking Q4 earnings estimates. As you can see from the
With earnings season about to get underway next week, the story about how much earnings expectations have fallen in the past two months is being reported by the media. This could change the sentiment in the market which has been riding high in the past two months. Even though stocks were modestly do
