Bonds and the Dollar Have Reached an Inflation Inflection Point
There comes a time in any economic cycle when inflation can roll over and begin a period of deflation. We’re at that point now, and just to make things interesting, we’re in the middle of a “Goldilocks” run in stocks. That makes now the perfect time to look at industries and assets that tend to…
Why Markets Don't Care About Risk Right Now
Stocks just keep going up. The S&P 500 is knocking at the psychologically important 5,000 level - an all-time high and a nice, big round number. So why do I feel uneasy? I think the market is really just fixated on the prospect of upside and is turning a blind eye to some significant risks…
These Are the Charts You Need to See Today
Markets are starting to come off their recent all-time highs, but it’s the tech-heavy NASDAQ that’s actually the most concerning right now. Tech, which led the markets last week, is starting to give up its leadership position, with chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD coming under pressure. With that said, a lot of the intermarket signals…
Strong Tech Runs Headlong Into Weakening Bonds
The Magnificent Seven propelled the markets virtually the whole of last week, despite weakness creeping in around the edges. At the same time, we saw monster volumes in the bond market as the smart money nervously eyed the exits. Stocks have drifted slightly lower at the beginning of the week, though tech and healthcare are…
Why Bond Selling Could Break This Market
Virtually all week, we saw a surge in bonds - the classic signal of a “flight to safety” and a warning that all hell’s about to break loose in stocks. We saw the entire market fixate on tech and its stellar earnings - tech is the market right now. Jobs numbers sparked an explosion in…
The Employment Report Is Sending a Dire Warning
There have been a huge number of layoffs issued recently - 61,000 notices impacting nearly 7 million workers. That’s not something the economy can just shrug off - and the markets are going to have a hard time grappling with it, too. Here’s why…
Forget AMZN, Forget META, Forget the Fed - Here’s What’s Will Rock This Market
There are some immense bond trades underway right now. That’s because the smart money is bailing out of the S&P 500 and fleeing tech. These moves scream “defense!” and we’d be wise to pay close attention. Duck and cover - money is running scared…
Intermarket Conditions Still Flash Caution for Stocks
The intermarket deterioration pointed out last week has worsened, and now at a sector level, semiconductors and tech are starting to display weakness as well. Energy has popped up nicely going into the FOMC rate decision, which could be another warning sign for equities over the next couple weeks.
All Quiet Ahead of Big Data Week
The S&P was unrelenting as it closed near the high of the day. While today was quietly rising, the coming days may prove to be perilous. With mega cap earnings reports from $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOG, $META and others, the FOMC policy statement and jobs appear to be small potatoes. This will be a pivotal…
Polarized Market Movements Wreak Havoc
—Options driving manic intraday movement —head in the game; moves are fast and unrelenting —dollar strength and foreign bond demand —Tesla not so magnificent after all —Tech is vulnerable… and there were 6 —Enter the Fed SPX Expected Move - -last week - 58.27 (5-day expected move) -next week - 70.87 (5-day expected move)