Is the Next 'Pain Trade' Domino About to Fall?
As the S&P 500 pushes to another new 52-week high, is the FOMC announcement setting up for the next pain trade. The "pain trade" when a widely-followed strategy or industry makes a sudden turn against expectations. An example, was the short U.S. Treasury rally. It was a "pain trade" for bond bears. If you think…
Stuck in the Middle with SPU
-Low VIX but high volatility? -isn't good jobs bad ? -Risky Business and the FED -Triple witching and the /ES roll -Dollar and bonds have reversed -C, GOOGL, LULU SPX Expected Move - -last week - 57.36 (5-day expected move) -next week - 64.66 (5-day expected move)
The Rise and Fall of the NASDAQ - What Every Trader Should Know?
In today's video we look at the 3 main drivers or correlations to the NASDAQ. We discuss the U.S. dollar, borrowing rates and AI's influence on the movement of tech stocks. We also look for the strong stocks that should remain strong if rates continue lower and the weak stocks that should sell off if…
Santa Claus Rally Cancelled?
Market Volatility and Santa Claus Rally: There's emerging volatility in the stock market, raising questions about whether the typical Santa Claus rally will happen. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are experiencing fluctuations, but these are within the expected daily move, suggesting the markets haven't reached an extreme volatility state. Analysis of Tech Stocks and NASDAQ:…
Can Stocks Hold Their Gains with the USD Rebound?
Despite the rebound in the U.S. Dollar, stocks have held their recent gains well, and we continue to see leadership from key sectors like technology. The bond market seems to be pricing in more disinflation, especially as crude oil falls to new multi-month lows.
Is the Bullish Squeeze Out of Juice?
The market has been ripping higher as the gamma and short squeeze plays out. Here's a look at today's "double dip" strategy of unusual option activity and short interest. However, with Tech lagging, how much juice is left to squeeze? ($HOOD, $FXI, $CVNA, $COIN, $SOFI, $ARKK, $IYR, $XRT, $AX, $BBWI, $RDFN, $CGC).
A Divergence in the Magnificent 7 Force?
- Mag 7 leadership role diminished this week - Financials continue to hold SP500 together - FED Fund Futures are ludicrous - positioning in a one-sided market (JPM, BA, IBM) - heavy skew, huge volatility contango - markets don't trust the future? SPX Expected Move - -last week - 46.29 (5-day expected move) -next week…
Does Pending Home Sales Mean a Pending Recession?
In today's video we look at pending home sales. We discuss the -1.5% pushing the pending home sales not just to an annual low but the lowest reading since the creation of the pending home sales report. We highlight the lag in existing sales report compared to pending home sales. We also discuss home builders…
Is an Economic Slowdown Bullish for Markets?
The Magnificent 7 make up all of the S&P 500 gains in 2023. That is really incredible when you think about it. Can those 7 stocks sustain the entire market in an economic slowdown? Because right now an economic slowdown is being predicated. When you look at the Fed Futures Watch Tool rate cuts are…
Your Stock and Sector Checklist to End November (and Enter December 2023!)
We're quickly coming to the end of 2023 and getting ready to start a fresh new year that's a month away! In tonight's video, we pinpoint the sector performance with the 2 strongest sectors, 3 weakest sectors, and the remainder that traded sideways this year. We also scan for the stocks showing the continual relative…