Why a Flat MACD is Terrifying
Twelve out of thirteen days. Up. Up. Up. That's not a free market. That's machine-driven manipulation. The Martingale probability of that happening naturally is almost zero. But in a market controlled by algorithms programmed to buy every single dip it becomes a foregone conclusion. Today, I'm showing you the two indicators that prove why forcing…
The "Garbage" Stock That Crushed NVIDIA
I pulled up the numbers this weekend. Dollar Tree versus Nvidia. Year-to-date performance. Dollar Tree: 82%. Nvidia: 72%. The discount retailer nobody talks about outperformed the AI giant everyone owns. This matters because January 1st changes EVERYTHING. Money managers wipe the slate clean. The stocks they ignored all year become the stocks they hunt. The…
The Week from Hell
My students asked me out for beer Wednesday night. Twenty-eight of them spread around Chicago now. Some work for Goldman. All traders and money managers. All analysts. We sat there in a bar while the temperature dropped to 20 degrees outside. They're finishing finals next week. Then I'm set free from undergrads for at least…
38% of Your Portfolio Is 10 Stocks (And None of You See the Problem)
The SPY just touched new highs. Everyone's celebrating. Pull up the holdings breakdown. The top 10 stocks represent 38% of total assets. Thirty-eight percent. That's not diversification. That's concentration risk dressed up as an index fund. When this corrects, and it will correct, that concentration amplifies every percentage point of decline. You're not spreading risk…
Why We Have 28 Days Before Markets Nosedive
Pull up the S&P 500 chart right now. Look at December. Does it look familiar? It should. Because we're watching a carbon copy of exactly what happened last year. That’s why I’m going to show you how to start planning NOW. This is the same pattern… the same manipulation…the same window dressing games…the same algorithmic…
Why The Market Won't Drop Below 6,500 Through December
I've traded for 38 years. I've never seen a market this bulletproof. Consumer confidence just hit four-month lows. Housing data shows sellers pulling listings at the fastest pace in months. Manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month. None of it matters. The market rallies anyway. This isn't bullish strength. This is systematic manipulation designed to…
The Dippers Just Made a Fatal Mistake
I watched them rush to buy Monday's weakness. Every small pullback getting scooped up within minutes. The same reflex that's worked for months. The pattern recognition firing perfectly. They're not getting their money back. Last week's algorithmic channel broke. The one-sided machine buying that defended every dip disappeared. You're now in a two-sided market where…
When Zero Downticks Should Terrify You
The S&P opened up 13 points this morning. Every dip got bought instantly. Zero downticks. I looked at my short positions and closed my screens. If you worked for my prop fund and tried shorting today, I'd fire you on the spot. This isn't hyperbole. This is protecting capital when the game changes completely. The…
Why I'd Fire You If You Shorted Today
The S&P opened up 30 points this morning and kept on going. Nothing stopped it. Not overbought conditions…elevated valuations…consumer confidence hitting four-month lows. The market just kept climbing. This is what I call being in a New York Groove, a nod to Ace Frehley of KISS. Algorithms have locked into a pattern where every dip…
Why Nobody Bought Abercrombie at 7x Earnings
Abercrombie sat at $70 for three weeks straight. What a waste. The stock traded at less than 7x earnings. Earnings growth is accelerating. They’re literally printing money. And nobody wanted it…until earnings hit yesterday. The stock exploded 18% to $78, and, as I write this, cresting $87. Everyone's chasing it. This pattern reveals everything wrong…