The Only Cheap AI Stock Left
I can count the cheap technology stocks on one hand. Out of a thousand names, almost nothing qualifies as a buy right now. Valuations stretched beyond reason. Multiples that would make any fundamental analyst cringe. Then an analyst came out this weekend and said something I actually agree with. Adobe is cheap. I use Adobe…
What Shaq Knows About Trading That You Don't
I finished my last undergrad class this semester. Done teaching at Loyola until January when the grad course picks back up. Walking through campus in that freezing wind, I kept thinking about something Shaquille O'Neal said. An interviewer asked him about being worth half a billion dollars. Shaq said he would not tell them exactly…
FedEx Beat By 20%. The Stock Got Destroyed
FedEx delivered earnings yesterday. They beat estimates by 20%. The stock reversed $27 intraday and closed in the red. I got two emails last night from traders who bought the after-hours spike. They wanted to know what went wrong. I told them the same thing I've told everyone for 38 years. Never, ever, ever trade…
Lies, More Lies, and This Morning's Data
The market rallied 87 points this morning on inflation data. Consumer prices supposedly slowed to 2.7%. Jobless claims came in light. Wall Street grabbed the numbers and ran. I watched from Chicago as the algorithms locked into a feedback loop. Micron beat earnings. The macro data looked dovish. Two catalysts gave the perma bulls exactly…
Slip and Slide: The Childhood Game That Explains January's Crash
My mom bought me and my brother a Slip and Slide when we were kids in Beverly Hills. We had a pool in the backyard. But when the neighborhood kids came over, we all played Slip and Slide instead. You remember the game. Fill up that crappy plastic rollout thing with a hose. Dive onto…
The Filing Nobody Noticed Could Send This Stock to $70
PayPal filed to become a bank last night. Not a partnership with a bank…Not a banking feature…An actual industrial bank serving small businesses. The stock moved one dollar. I expected it to move ten. If this chart weren't so beaten down from years of decline, money managers would be all over this filing. Instead, they're…
The AI Lease Nobody Could Pay
Fermi (FRMI) got absolutely slaughtered last week. The stock cratered because the company had hundreds of millions of dollars in land leases for AI data centers. They tried to break out of those leases. The AI tenants couldn't pay. Fermi entered into a non-binding letter of intent for Project Matador. The agreement would advance up…
The Day After
The Fed cut rates Wednesday afternoon. The market popped. Then it dropped. Then it settled flat. I watched it happen from my office in Chicago while snow piled up outside. One degree Saturday night. Try living that. None of it mattered. Not the cut. Not the pop. Not Powell's press conference. The only thing that…
Alpha Decay Will Kill Your Strategy (Even If It Works Today)
The term comes from nuclear physics. An unstable atomic nucleus expels particles to become more stable. Each emission weakens the original structure until it transforms completely. The same process is destroying your portfolio right now. Alpha decay. You've never heard of it because nobody talks about it. But it explains why this market will correct…
Why Tomorrow Matters More Than Today
The Fed announces their rate decision at 2pm EST today. Every trader I know is glued to their screen waiting. I covered one Walmart short for $25 profit this morning. That's my entire day. I called my brother-in-law who trades options aggressively. He's sitting out too. I won't touch anything else until tomorrow. Not because…