Wall Street Just Fired 10,600 People
Wall Street eliminated 10,600 jobs last year. Total headcount is now the lowest since 2021. And this is just the beginning. I have traded for 38 years. I taught portfolio management to 28 grad students at Loyola last night. These kids are eating up technical analysis because they understand something their professors refuse to admit.…
Every Safe Stock Has a Kill Switch
Verizon carries 52% long-term debt on its balance sheet. I pulled up the fundamentals this morning and stared at that number. Half the company's capital structure is borrowed money. The stock trades at a 0.43 beta. It moves like watching paint dry. Investors buy it for the dividend and sleep soundly at night. They shouldn't.…
The Stocks I Refuse to Short
Nvidia was down five bucks this morning. I still won't touch it. Not long. Not short. Nothing. I have traded for 39 years. I covered small cap semiconductor equipment as an analyst. I understand how to price these companies better than most talking heads on television. But I cannot price Nvidia. Neither can you. There…
The Money Is Leaving
China just pulled the plug. State-backed Chinese investors have initiated a strategic decoupling from US private equity markets. This is not speculation. This is a five-year trend that accelerated into 2025. The numbers are staggering. US venture capital participation in Chinese deals has collapsed 92% since 2021. Chinese commitments to US venture capital funds have…
One Penny Just Cost Shareholders 16%
Abercrombie and Fitch reported guidance this morning. They told Wall Street they would earn between $3.40 and $3.60 this quarter. The estimate was $3.45 to $3.65. That is a one percent variance. One penny at the low end. The stock crashed 16% before lunch. I have traded for 39 years. This is the most unforgiving…
Making Money Too Fast is a Problem
One of the members…well…he had made too much money too fast. I know that doesn’t sound like a problem. But, he overleveraged on momentum names that could gap down 5% overnight. I have watched traders like him blow up for 39 years. They swing for the fences every time. One bad pitch and they strike…
The Market Is Holding Its Breath
The four-hour MACD on the S&P 500 just curved upward… I have traded for 39 years. I have never seen people make money fighting this indicator. Not once. Not even me. The market is sitting at the apex of an ascending triangle. Every short seller piling in here is adding to their losses while…
We’re 5 Days Away From the Breaking Point
I have traded for 38 years. Never have I introduced a theme I considered more important than this one. The market is in a state of entropy - a scientific term that describes disorder, randomness, and chaos building inside a system until something breaks. We’re 5 days away from the breaking point. The degree of…
The Framework That Made Me a Millionaire
I shorted everything you bought last year. Not because I'm smarter. Because you traded value stocks like growth stocks. That single mistake transfers more wealth from retail accounts to professionals than any other error I've seen in 38 years. You buy Cisco expecting 40% returns when the company is built for 8%. You load up…
The Processor War Just Got Real
Microchip boosted sales guidance this morning. The stock jumped six bucks and dragged every semiconductor with it. Micron surged $19. The SOX index hit another all-time high. Retail traders saw green and started buying calls on anything with "chip" in the name. That approach will get you killed. One semiconductor reports good news and the…