The do's and don'ts of Trading Volatility
TheoTraders be aware of what to do and what not to do in volatility. Whether you're looking to sell the rally or buy the dip here are some ideas for you. The risk continues to be to the downside. That doesn't mean jump in and buy puts. There will be time for trade. It's very…
A Fox, A Dog, And An AAA Rating Lost
Just to be clear, there was probably never a particularly “good” time for the UK to vote to leave the EU. Any way you slice it, it’s a tail event and evaluating the fallout of a potential Brexit was well nigh impossible ahead of time. Sure, economists could guesstimate the likely impact on the UK…
Brexit Fallout Continues: Here’s What To Watch
US and European bourses got off to a rocky start on Monday after a largely positive session overnight in Asia. You’ll want to watch financials here, both in the US and (especially) in Europe. Needless to say, markets were already questioning the solvency of some European banks and now, post-Brexit, we’ve got a real problem.…
A Closer Look At Which Companies Are Vulnerable To A Rising Dollar
Clearly, the results of the UK referendum leave us with quite a bit to think about going forward. Trading in the days ahead of the vote provided some important lessons in investor psychology and we learned, yet again, that the post crisis landscape is vulnerable to tail events. We were also reminded of the extent…
The Black Swan Landed: What Happens Now?
Ok, the Brexit dust has settled. Sort of, although there’s a Russell rebalance today, so don’t forget about that. The obvious question going into the weekend is this: “so by almost all accounts that was a catastrophe, what now?” Well, the first thing you should probably take into consideration is the collective central bank reaction.…
The Morning After: Surveying Brexit Damage
It all started at exactly 5:01 pm ET Thursday evening. That’s when the following headline hit the terminal: NIGEL FARAGE: LOOKS LIKE REMAIN WILL EDGE IT: SKY Hallelujah. This week’s risk-on sentiment was justified after all. They’ll be no “Brexit” on our watch. Take that, anyone long yen. Then, exactly one hour and 53 minutes…
Analysts See Oil Rising To $80 As Saudis Say Supply Glut Over
The great crude debate continues unabated. Earlier this week, Raymond James made the case for $80 crude in 2017. What’s particularly amusing there is that while the firm will look ridiculous if they’re wrong and if we have, as some analysts contend, entered a “new oil order” where prices will remain subdued indefinitely, one of…
Is It Time To Load Up On US Treasurys?
Here we are, UK referendum day and markets seem all but certain that the “remain” camp is going to ultimately prevail. The latest polls showed the “leave” camp trailing headed into what’s turned out to be a wet day of reckoning in Britain, where “torrential” rain forced some polling stations to close. We’ve seen the…
Final Call For Brexit Analysis: A Last Minute Look At One Bank’s S&P Forecast
This is it folks, last call for Brexit analysis and commentary. Or at least we hope so, although one certainly imagines that if the vote is close, whichever side loses will demand a do-over. To be sure, markets are trading as though “remain” is a done deal. Have a look, for instance, at (in order)…
Don’t Be A Hero: One Bank Thinks Now Is The Time To Look For Quality
It’s not always a good idea to follow Goldman Sachs’ investment recommendations. Who could forget the famous NY Times op-ed penned by departing investment banker Greg Smith who offered the following rather scathing critique of the firm’s attitude towards those the bank is ostensibly obligated to serve: “Over the last 12 months I have seen…