Are We Headed for New Lows?
While S&P's are massively unchanged today, other threats linger in the sidelines. The real standout is not the NASDAQ itself, but the many freakish 1-minute moves inside of the futures market that have decimated many traders' day today. Listen to today's video to find out more...
Are Outsized Market Moves Indicating the Big One is Coming?
--Outsized moves in SP500 --4 out 5 weeks have seen 2 sigma moves --has we seen this before? --SKEW and VVIX compound the situation --monitoring bond markets and dollar closely SPX Expected Move -- --last week -- 120.79 (expected move) --next week-- 112.64 (expected move)
Bring Back the Bear?
Is this small rally in the SPX sustainable, or are we about to enter a full-on bear market? Volume in the S&Ps included several days and was not very high. Week in and week out, the expected move is not rocking to the upside, pointing highly to a longer term bear market...
What Kills Markets First, Inflation or the FED?
--No easy path forward for the markets --FED will "break things" --lower volatility on heavy selling --SKEW low, obscure options volume in the SPX --yields inverted, bonds tanked and rebound --energy sees the economic slowdown coming --crypto stability evaporates --metals holding up in a strong dollar SPX Expected Move-- --last week-- 131.85 (expected move)…
Wall Street Banks Profit Off of Volatility, Don Kaufman Tells Business TV
As investors grapple with the market meltdown, trading desks at the country's largest banks are busy making markets and making money. The market volatility is pushing up trading revenues 15% - 25% at big banks. Don Kaufman, Chief Market Strategist at TheoTrade, has extensive background in market-making, brokerage, and trading. In this NTD Business News…
Carnage Grips Hold in the Markets
Bonds and stocks tank as interest rates have now more than doubled since the start of the year. There is no coming back from this parabolic move in interest rates that impact every facet of the economy. There is serious risk in this market as volatility has exploded higher and liquidity has dried up. The…
Are Markets Headed to Uncharted Territory?
Inflation, Stagflation, Recession, Rising Rates-- --Sellers Return with a Vengeance --Expected Move and the 2 sigma beast --CPI too hot to handle --Bonds / Yield curve inverting 2yr vs 10yr --Big selling with a lack of volatility intensity --Volatility futures Inverting ? --Dollar explodes higher --Metals rebound --FOMC, does the FED matter? SPX Expected Move--…
Bonds Create the Perfect Storm for Fridays CPI
The S&P 500 ends today where it started the week. There's still a 100 point potential move higher or lower for the S&P. Where do we go from here?
Fed Feeds Volatility, Kaufman Tells International Business Times
"Over the past couple of years, there have been significant melt-ups in the market, largely driven by Federal Reserve policy and stimulus," TheoTrade Chief Market Strategist Don Kaufman told International Business Times. "As the Fed is in the process of quantitative tightening and rising interest rates, volatility has come back.” Read the full story: IB Times
Should We Fear Market Complacency?
Complacency in the midst of selling-- --Low SKEW implications --VVIX back to 2020 lows --VIX cannot catch a bid? --lack of hedging, what does the market know? Examining Asset Classes-- --Sector ETFs --metals --oil / energy --crypto hanging on by a thread --bonds, notes and rates SPX Expected Move-- --last week-- 100.19 …