Here’s the Final Warning for 2024
Historically, December is a very bullish time for the markets - even more so in election years. This usually comes down to the big players chasing performance, and jockeying for tax advantages in the year ahead. So from that perspective, a bet on an “up” December makes at least some sense. But - and this…
Bonds Pop, Gold Drops, and China Makes a Move
Bonds and gold historically have a positive correlation; they tend to move together. But that’s been breaking up as of late, and that’s what happened today. Whether they’re breaking up for good is a different story. Treasuries saw their biggest rally since August, but gold had its biggest drop since the beginning of the month.…
Gold Is (Literally) Handing Us a Golden Opportunity
My approach to the market is to identify activity, or “pulses,” beneath the surface of the market that point to potential movement. These “pre-move pulses” are a strong indication of the potential success of a trade. Early last week, Tuesday, in fact, my gold charts began to show exactly this kind of activity. They’re still…
Bitcoin Is Having a Redefining Moment
The “Bitcoin Industrial Complex” ecosystem of crypto and crypto stocks and ETFs saw a record $38 billion in trading volume today. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) alone saw $4.5 billion in inflows - not a bad start to the week. Of course, this comes at an interesting time - the wake of last week’s…
What Today’s Volatility Tells Us About Tomorrow’s Election
The U.S. presidential election ends tomorrow; we’ll see results filter in throughout Tuesday’s trading session. Algorithms will be making judgements as to which markets and stocks will benefit from a Trump or Harris victory. For us mere humans, the outlook as to who will take the reins from President Biden is cloudy, but we need…
Mixed Up Market as Oil Slips and Bonds Dip
The S&P 500 finished modestly higher as crude oil slipped over 5% on the day. With oil down, you would think that U.S. Treasury bonds would be up as the inflation monster is further tamed. If that was your thought process, you would be wrong! While oil is only surface level analysis on the future…
A Bond Rout Spooks Interest Rate-Sensitive Sectors
Bonds have been quietly (as usual) selling off as the S&P 500 tests new all-time highs. Of course, for folks like me who’re in the markets all day, “quiet” is anything but; rate-sensitive corners of the market may finally take notice after today’s sell-off. Now, I can hear you ask: “What does interest rate-sensitive mean,…
Welcome to the “Pain Trade” - Here’s What to Do About It
“What’s the pain trade, Brandon?” I can hear you ask. Well, it’s the trade that delivers the most amount of punishment to as many investors as possible. Get familiar with it. The market is grinding higher, satisfying pretty much nobody. The bulls are left wanting more, whereas the bears who were short the market (like…
Utilities Break as the S&P 500 Holds Its Range
The S&P 500 has been drifting for a few weeks in a 100-point range that has yet to be broken. Even today, S&P 500 futures (ES) finished down 0.90%... on light volume. The market as a whole has held up, but interest-rate-sensitive parts of the market are starting to break. Utilities, for instance, were off…
A Tumultuous Quarter Ends at New Highs
Anyone hoping to see a little more volatility finally got it today… but not necessarily in the shiny bearish package they were counting on. Indeed, the S&P 500 finished the day - and the third quarter - with an all-time high close. This comes barely two months after the market made its early August correction.…