We’re Dealing with Muted Monday Malevolence
The S&P 500 is like a plane in a holding pattern, trading mildly higher. Nothing to write home about… nothing to get excited about… right? Well, traders are digesting the 50-basis-point rate cut we got last week - and weighing the 50/50 proposition that the Fed may cut another 50 basis points at their November…
The Fed “Train” Is Leaving the Station: Destination Unknown
The markets are pricing in the first rate cut in more than four years. As of this writing, it looks like we can expect a 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday, with a 50% probability of a 1.25% cut by December. That’s fast… but what’s the hurry? Is the Fed that desperate to accommodate the mountain of…
The S&P 500 Surges as “Shiny Objects” Distract Investors
The big index was up nicely today (after the worst week since Silicon Valley Bank blew up). Verizon (VZ) and Nvidia led the way as Apple (AAPL) failed to dazzle with its product-line reveal. If you take a step back and consider the market’s current prospects, it becomes clear that, for everything that’s happened, players…
The S&P 500 Is Trying to Hold It Together, But the Odds Are Stiff
There’s some big data coming our way this week: jobs data. We’ll get a glimpse of how the market is primed to receive positive or negative news, whether it’s “bad news is good news”... or the other way around. The Fed, of course, is set to cut rates this month. The market could take them…
Here’s the Script the Fed’s Jackson Hole Statement Really Flipped
It was cute to watch Chairman Powell speak at a luxurious resort at Jackson Hole, on the edge of the old Frontier. To his credit, he addressed the root causes of inflation - spending and monetization… but then he laughed off the notion that they got the “transitory” part wrong. It’s easy for those in…
High Beta Squeezed as Vol Markets Scream Caution
The S&P 500 is on fire, rallying for eight straight days and soaring over 9.5% since the August 5 low. While some might shrug off this rollercoaster of a market as just another day on Wall Street, don’t be fooled—this is anything but business as usual. The VIX, which spiked to a staggering 65, has…
Stagflation Lurks Ahead of This Week’s Data Release
The market is convinced the Fed is satisfied with its inflation effort and is preparing to cut interest rates. We’ll gauge the reality of those expectations this week with a heat check on PPI and CPI data. The “$64,000 Dollar Question” is: How is the market positioned? If today’s action is any indication, it’s positioned…
For Markets, This Is the Start of the Biggest Week of the Summer
It’s really tough to overstate how important the next four sessions are going to be. The Fed will begin to lay out its plan for rate cuts. Some of the biggest companies on the planet are announcing earnings. And there’s a little employment announcement coming Friday. So, saying there’s “significant” potential for volatility is putting…
Atlas Shrugged… And the Market Rallied
The U.S. political landscape underwent a second earthquake in as many weeks as President Biden announced (by Tweet, no less) that he was ending his embattled candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the presidency. His campaign for the nomination, which was all but totally sewn-up, ended in a bit of a whimper as he shrugged…
How to Trade for Dystopian Days
This weekend’s assassination attempt on the former president, and distinctly downbeat vibes throughout the economy, make it worthwhile to consider… a gigantic bummer. Possibly. If you were contemplating a dystopian United States - a dystopian world, really - what would you invest in? Maybe one of the few online bastions of free speech? RUM and…