Between Beach Sand and Bond Yields: Navigating Markets When Direction Is Elusive
There’s something about sinking your feet into the sand that makes the chaos of the markets seem a little less urgent. Maybe it’s the rhythm of waves, the simplicity of a skyball serve, or the nostalgia of watching movies with your kid that offers a kind of clarity we don’t always find in the S&P…
Sentiment Enters the “Squishy Middle” - Here’s What to Do
You thought you had it all under control on the bullish end yesterday… Traders bought the dip; everything was going according to plan. Suddenly it’s today - and just as suddenly… you’re not so sure. Welcome to the squishy middle of market sentiment! “The squishy middle?” you ask. Well, it means the market isn’t quite…
Remembering, Revaluing, and Refocusing
It’s a strange thing, how standing at a grave can offer clearer insight into the stock market than a spreadsheet ever could. Over the holiday, my family gathered around my father’s resting place, swapping stories, laughing through impersonations, grilling burgers and reminiscing over J Dawgs sauce and banana peppers. There was no ticker tape or…
Hedge Like a Bear, Hunt Like a Bull: Why Now Is the Time to Prepare for the Rebound
If you want to survive—let alone thrive—in this market, you better understand two words: hedging and preparation. Two market truisms spring to mind: Market sell-offs aren’t always straight lines down, and position now for the rebound. This is where too many retail traders get blindsided because they're either too bearish too late or too bullish…
Ghost Prints and Volatility Say the Real Move Is Still Ahead
After weeks of upward momentum, the last three sessions have been textbook indecision. Inside days, low range candles, and no conviction in either direction. On the surface, it looks like consolidation. But under the hood? Something very different is taking shape - and if you’re not watching the internal trends, you’re missing the real story.…
The Market’s in Downgrade Denial - Here’s What to Do
As we approach the close today, one might have assumed a much bigger response to Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt. We saw the S&P 500 notch a lukewarm 0.13% decline. Historically, though, the response to such downgrades has been much bigger the day of the downgrade and the coming weeks and months after. On August…
What to Do As the Market Brings a "Pain Trade" Moment
You hear the term "pain trade" thrown around the financial media sometimes. Here's the Cliff's Notes definition: It's the trade that delivers the most pain to the most investors. As the market rallies nearly 3%, it's time for us to reckon with our pain trade. What's going to cause the greatest amount of pain to…
Here’s the Right Way to Look at These Rallies and Selloffs
Let’s say an athlete ties a record that’s stood untested for 20 years. Is the performance a fluke or one-off? Or is it a sign that the record might fall soon, that something bigger is coming down the road? What’s the proper perspective? With the market wracked by uncertainty, that’s the question in front of…
We're in a Holding Pattern - And That’s OK
Remember the movie Braveheart? There’s a scene where the Scottish are about to battle the English, and Mel Gibson’s William Wallace is telling his soldiers to “hold!” His point was: Wait for the perfect moment to engage the English in battle. When both sides begin to set up for battle, it makes sense that someone…
Something Strange Is Happening in Gold and Bonds
Normally, bond and gold prices move in tandem. For instance, if the Fed, say, cuts interest rates and expands the money supply, gold will advance as short-term bonds rally on the cut in rates. Now, there are times when the prices diverge but right now we’re seeing something pretty extraordinary: Higher bond yields failed to…