Fear and Loathing Ahead of Payroll Numbers
After a morning of calm, steady gains, the markets got a significant jolt of dread this afternoon. News hit that Israel was boosting security measures at its worldwide embassies and consulates in anticipation of Iranian retaliation for a recent Israeli attack. This whipped the bulls and in a matter of minutes, the day’s gains turned…
NVDA Double Top Formation Impacts Everything
It has been apparent to most investors that AI and specifically NVDA has driven markets to record highs. NVDA is finally showing signs of slowing and even a potential trend reversal pattern, a double top. If the Double Top is confirmed, we expect correlated moves in indexes and individual stocks. Today we discussed the potential…
Three Stocks to Trade for Three Rate Cuts
The infamous Fed Dot Plot showed most committee members are forecasting three rate cuts in 2024. For those of you who’ve been hiding out in the woods since 2009, rate cuts can act like rocket fuel for many, many stocks… and poison for others. And we could get three hits of it this year. And…
What Consumer Spending Tells Us About Nike's Future Earnings
Few things can hit the market as hard as the American consumer’s mood. The impact isn’t always direct or proportional or even immediate, but it touches almost everything, and many stocks virtually live or die by consumer sentiment. Last week we looked at what sentiment will do for… and to… Costco. This week, we’re going…
I Just Found the Next Big Market Catalyst
It's understandable investors would assume that Amazon is a great representation of consumer discretionary spending - and the overall economy, for that matter. But I think I can go one better... It might suprise you, but I think Costco is actually the better yardstick, and I'll show you exactly why. See, when Costco beats, equities…
Why This Bad Economic Data Was Good for Stocks
So, it seems “bad news is good news” again - we’ve seen this cycle a few times in recent years… Investors have had the chance to digest not-exactly-great economic data several times this week - including today, when the PCE numbers hit the street. None of that data was positive; we haven’t had a single…
Why AI Has a Split Personality
Now, there’s no doubt artificial intelligence (AI) will eventually change the world. That’s already starting, but the full impact is probably a ways down the road. Right now, investors’ perception and imagination of AI is what’s really driving the bus. Hopes and fears are what we have to contend with right now. That’s powerful stuff.…
Consumers Are Tired - Retail Sales Numbers Clinch It
The almighty American consumer is… spread a little thin right now. A little worse for the wear. That’s not just a hunch. Today’s retail sales numbers were negative - very negative. But to understand what’s really happening we have to get in and look behind that headline 0.8% drop. A lot of that decline took…
Bonds and the Dollar Have Reached an Inflation Inflection Point
There comes a time in any economic cycle when inflation can roll over and begin a period of deflation. We’re at that point now, and just to make things interesting, we’re in the middle of a “Goldilocks” run in stocks. That makes now the perfect time to look at industries and assets that tend to…
The Employment Report Is Sending a Dire Warning
There have been a huge number of layoffs issued recently - 61,000 notices impacting nearly 7 million workers. That’s not something the economy can just shrug off - and the markets are going to have a hard time grappling with it, too. Here’s why…