Trade & Regulations Front And Center
With the first business day of Trump’s presidency, we are seeing two trends which will be countering each other. There still aren’t complete details on the new policies, but the trends are becoming clearer. The trends are decreasing regulations and increasing trade barriers. The trade barriers increasing is a negative on global growth. The U.S.…
Finding Opportunity in the ETF Market
With Friday's gains, the Dow Industrial Average snapped its 5-day losing streak as earnings helped buoy stocks on the day. However, if we look back in the last 2 weeks the broad based S&P 500 index literally did not move. In this weekend edition let's hunt for the best opportunity in today's markets. To learn…
Trump’s Automated America
Since Trump was inaugurated this week, I figured it would interesting to delve into the obstacles he will face in his next four years. This a longer-term approach to economics then I usually take. The reason it is worth it for readers to know about the challenges is because you can alternate your investing strategy…
Market Peak?
The market has settled into a tight range after spiking higher in November and December. It’s tough to say why the market would rally when it is already so expensive. It tends to want to hurt the most investors when they are all leaning in one direction. There were a lot of shorts betting against…
Twitter Headed Down; YouTube Headed Up
In this article, I will discuss two companies moving in the opposite direction. YouTube continues to dominate the online video landscape and Twitter continues to lose ground. Twitter is a disillusioned company which has a base of dedicated users, but no momentum towards accelerated user growth or profitability. YouTube’s profitability isn’t broken down by Alphabet,…
Shrinking Balance Sheet
The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is becoming more of a focus than its decision on interest rates. This is because of increased Fed statements on the topic which I will go over in this article. Goldman Sachs is forecasting no changes to the balance sheet until mid-2018. This would be after the new…
Is SKEW Good For You?
Stocks slipped again, as the Dow Industrial Average fell for a 5th straight day, down about 300 points from all-time highs reached two-weeks ago (1/6) and at 6-week lows heading into tomorrow’s Presidential inauguration. Today marked another round of positive economic data with jobless claims plunging and housing data rising. The dollar rebounded on the…
Bitcoin Doesn’t Fall After Further PBOC Action
There was a new report today that continues the narrative of the People’s Bank of China further intervening with bitcoin. However, the action didn’t lead to the price declines which previously occurred with past announcements. There was a burst of volatility after each part of the report came out, but the price of bitcoin recovered…
NY Fed Manufacturing Output Review
There’s been a bifurcation of the economic survey data from the so called hard data which measures real production and economic activity. My theory is optimism about the new administration is causing this difference. The consensus is this optimism means 2017 will see accelerated growth. In the consensus’s defense, optimism usually does mean growth will…
The reality of earnings and a quiet market
Treasuries slumped, as bond yields surged sharply to the upside for the 10-year to around 2.42%. The tech heavy NASDAQ rebounded after posting its worst performance of the year yesterday (falling from record highs reached last Friday) amid a jump in semiconductors and ahead of NFLX earnings. All eyes on the European Central Bank tomorrow…