Semi-Annual Fed Report
Today the Fed gave its semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate. It’s debatable whether any policy changes on interest rates were made because it’s a matter of tone. According to Goldman Sachs the chance of a rate hike in March increased from 15% to 20%. The chance of a rate hike in June increased…
Watch Out for the GroundHog Day Effect
This morning as Fed Chairwoman Yellen spoke and the markets sold off not many thought we would end the day at new all time highs across the major indexes. Yet here we are. In tonight's video let's look at the best way to tell if the market will end higher or lower intraday. This is…
The Dow Likely Isn’t Going To 36,000: Part 1
In this post, I will respond to the article in the Atlantic which is titled “Dow 36,000.” The article is filled with contradictory statements and logical fallacies. I think it’s a good idea to debate the concepts it promotes head on. I’m starting the debate out on the losing end for some readers because they…
Tarullo Resigns- Trump Fed Picks Coming
Daniel Tarullo, the Fed’s top regulator stepped down on Friday, effective April 5th, 2017. Tarullo was chairman of the board’s Committee on Supervision and Regulation. He also was chairman of the Financial Stability Board’s Standing Committee on Supervisory and Regulatory Cooperation. He’s also a voting member of the central bank’s policymaking panel. He’s been a…
Earnings Estimates Head Lower
Every Friday FactSet releases the updated aggregate information on earnings. I will review the new data. It was a poor update, but clearly the market doesn’t care as it rallied to new all-time highs. The market hasn’t cared about earnings for this entire cycle. Amazon stock declined after having a disappointing earnings report, but it…
The Rally Goes On and Shorts Feel the Heat
Today the SPX has once again moved exactly to its expected move. Whether you're long or short this market in tonight's video let's look at what the expected move is and how to determine your risk...
Snap Probably Isn’t The Next Facebook
I have been following Snapchat for a few years. I found myself wondering if the company would be able to do its IPO in time before the credit cycle ended. In fact, CEO Evan Spiegel himself seems to be knowledgeable about the perils of Federal Reserve money printing. It’s an interesting parallel as his company…
What to Do in a Market that Does Nothing...
Friday saw another day of all time highs in the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P. The Russell trailing just slightly. This past week saw another week of movement within the expected move. In this extended weekend edition let's look at why the options market is so quiet and what you can do about it...
The Unlikely Rally Continues
The unlikely event that stock prices would rise this year given their expensive valuations to start the year is occurring. If you annualize the returns of the S&P 500, the market is on pace to return in the high 20% range for 2017. That goes against what I have been projecting. This is why I…
Positive Arguments For Stocks
The major indices all hit record highs Thursday extending the valuations to even more extraordinary levels. The dollar has been increasing in the past few days which may be a result of the border adjusted tax being discussed. I’d consider it a fat tail event. If Goldman’s estimation that there is a 20% chance of…