John Taylor Surges In The Fed Chair Betting Market
Global Monetary Policy The chart below is unique because it shows 9 central banks, giving a more complete picture of the liquidity being added to the financial system. As you can see in the description, this includes the expectation that the ECB will taper to 30 billion euros per month for 9 months and then…
Fed Fueled Extremes
Stocks continue to slowly grind higher. And when we say slowly we really mean slow. In this video newsletter update we look at the implied volatility and the historical volatility. Both are the lowest in recent history. Now that earnings season is here will volatility return? Watch this video to find out and a trade…
Small Businesses Optimism Fell In September
Powell At 52% The latest update on the Fed chair odds is Warsh is at 30% and Powell is at 52%. Clearly, the decision is coming soon as the odds that anyone outside the top two are picked are falling. The higher Powell’s odds go, the more bullish it is for stocks. I wouldn’t say…
ECB Will Give 2018 QE Policy Update On October 26th
This year, the two monetary policy aspects we've been focused on the most are President Trump’s decision on who the Fed chair will be and what the ECB will do with the CSPP (corporate sector purchase program) and the PSPP (public sector purchase program). The big decisions are both going to happen in the next…
Q3 Bank Earnings Start This Week - News Already Baked In?
In this video newsletter update we look at financials which are up a whopping 10% in just the last month. Now that earnings season is here will the bank stock live up to their latest run or have these stocks gone too far too fast? Watch this video to help you sort this out and…
Powell Is Now The Fed Chair Front Runner
Twelve companies from the S&P 500 are reporting earnings this week. The results will start coming faster next week which is why I said that was the beginning of earnings season. This means FactSet’s chart of bottom up expectations has moved to tracking Q4 earnings estimates. As you can see from the chart, estimates have…
Stocks Rally In The Face Of Weak Estimates
With earnings season about to get underway next week, the story about how much earnings expectations have fallen in the past two months is being reported by the media. This could change the sentiment in the market which has been riding high in the past two months. Even though stocks were modestly down on Monday as the…
Understanding and Trading the VIX
In this video newsletter update we look at a the volatility index products and how they impact the markets you trade. Understanding the VIX gives you a critical edge in the markets right now. Watch this video to help you understand the VIX and get a trade idea...
Small Caps Outperform Large Caps
Small Caps Earnings Growth Falls But Financials Look Good Even though the Russell 2000 was down slightly on Friday, the small caps are still in the best streak since the post-election run. The chart below shows the rally after the election was justified given the accelerated earnings growth after the earnings recession in 2015-2016. Unless the…
Markets Display Extreme Distortions
In this crucial weekend video newsletter update we look take a deep dive into options pricing and how they are impacting the markets. Watch this video to see an option pricing distortion that you may never see again! Understanding this gives you a critical edge in the markets right now.