Recession Not In Sight
Recession and Strong Jobless Claims Recession and jobless claims: the jobless claims report was strong again as claims fell from 219,000 to 213,000. Quite frankly, if you asked economists 3 years ago if such a report was possible, most would have said “no.” This cycle has seen record lows in the ratio between the labor…
Are These Sectors A Sell?
With the market stalling into resistance, we look beneath the index to the nine major sectors for clues and opportunities of what to trade next during the likely - though not guaranteed - sell swing. We highlight Financials, Technology and Retail in our sector check-up tonight….
China Increases Its Tariff Rate To 25%
China Tariff Dispute Intensifies Recently, China announced it will retaliate against America’s latest round of tariffs against it. Also, China will put a 25% tariff on $16 billion worth of American products. These 333 goods include large passenger cars, motorcycles, various fuels, and fiber optic cables. China is also taxing coal, grease, Vaseline, asphalt, plastic…
Consumer Spending Up, While Leverage Modest
Consumer Spending - Stocks Not Overhyped Consumer spending is up. Whether stocks are showing signs of exhaustion depends on which indicator you review. The CNN Fear and Greed index makes me cautious about stocks in relation to consumer spending, but the Investor Movement Index seen in the chart below shows investors are still cautious. TD…
Time To Buy Volatility Now?
Volatility continues to drift lower down to the 10 handle for the first since January. The question in tonight's video newsletter is it time to buy volatility? If we do, we want to do it while taking a very minimum amount of risk. Watch this video newsletter to find out which trade ideas surrounding low…
Greed Increases; Stocks Less Than 1% Away From Record High
The Greed Is Palpable Greed is increasing at an alarming rate. The S&P 500 was up 0.28% and the VIX was down 3.02% to 10.93 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 are less than 1% away from their record highs. Just as the market is getting close to its record high, it is…
Toys R Us & Government Hurt Great Jobs Report
Toys R Us Bankruptcy Makes Report Look Bad Toys R Us bankruptcy skewed the jobs report. There are many other details which show this report was better than the headline number suggests. The most prominent one time negative impact was the Toys R Us bankruptcy. This caused the sporting goods, hobby, book, and music store…
Your Swing Trading Plan For This Week...
With the stock market once again overextended into the highs and volume weak, we plan for an immediate sell swing for the week ahead, noting targets and opportunities especially in /ES but also the NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell….
Bull Market - Weeks Away From Longest Since WWII
Bull Market - Longest Wave Since WWII Bull market investors are riding the wave of great earnings reports and improving estimates which aren’t being hampered by fears of a trade war or fears of an economic slowdown. Weakening ISM and Markit services reports aren’t enough to worry investors. It’s easy to ignore them when forward…
Business Optimism At A 6 Month Low?
Business Optimism and the Weakening PMI Services Index Business optimism - After reviewing the non-manufacturing ISM report, you must be wondering about the stability of this recovery. Is it possible that the services index is signaling a slowdown in the 2nd half of the year? Reviewing the July Markit services report will help us find…