Is the S&P 500 Ready to Rally?
S&P 500 Option Activity Rally Cap I frequently watch unusual option activity and today saw an unusually large bullish trade made on the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY). Bullish? Yes, you heard it here first! While the activity alone doesn’t lead to certainty, it is an example of the outlook by some large traders.…
Do Or Die For The Stimulus Talks
Stimulus Woes Hurt Stocks The stock market fell sharply on Monday as investors feared a stimulus won’t pass. We will find out if that fear is true on Tuesday. Nancy Pelosi set a 48 hour deadline for a deal on Sunday. Obviously, politicians change their minds all the time, but if Steve Mnuchin and Pelosi…
Worst Holiday Shopping Season Since 2009 Coming
Holiday Shopping Estimate Latest data suggests this won’t be a good holiday shopping season. An extra $300 in jobless benefits per week ran out for many states. Plus, the labor market is weakening and no stimulus is on the docket. Furthermore, there will be more restrictions in the Midwest because of COVID-19. Even if this…
Here Come the Sellers
Bears win the day as selling hits the market across the board. The SPX dropped to near it's expected move for the week. Here's how I did on the day…
Huge Increase In Speculators’ Positioning - Major Reversal
Selloff Continues, Albeit Mildly Technically stocks sold off because most fell even though the S&P 500 was up. S&P 500 was up one basis point, but the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 fell 36 and 31 basis points. We’re sort of in a selloff, but it hasn’t been deep. That makes sense because we are right…
Highest Retail Sales Growth Since 2011
Very Strong Retail Sales September retail sales report was so strong, it surprised many. It seems like the labor market started to slow in October compared to September, but this was a good report. Consumers were helped by the delayed extra benefits that they got in September. Many states gave out $300 per week. Since…
What Do Markets Say about the Election?
Risk into the Friday Bell! Broken Brexit does not impact markets Massively UNCHED on the WEEK--pull back off the upper EM Retail Sales--AMZN drops on big sales Heavy Earnings Week Coming--TSLA, NFLX, INTC Reading the Vol SKEW--election risk growing? Getting a read on risk---VVIX--Dollar--Bonds SPX Expected Move--last week-- 71.91 (expected move)--next week-- 80.94
Euphoria In Nio Cannot Be Tamed
Small Cap Rally Stocks sold off to start the day, but recovered most of their losses by the end of the day on Thursday. Small caps beat large cap tech which is surprising because COVID-19 is getting worse and the stimulus is up in the air. Investors heavily invested in small banks even though rates…
Economy Takes A Dive
Bad Jobless Claims Report Last week’s jobless claims report was bad. This one was worse. The trend is unsettling. Don’t look at the declines in continued claims because there are people moving off traditional benefits to pandemic and extended benefits. Labor market has stopped improving in the past few weeks. We will likely see much…
Last Call to Buy Volatility!
The stock market pulls back to about where it started the week. Everyone see the volatility ahead and here are the types of long volatility trades Don is looking at…