Will Any Debt Ceiling Deal Be Good for Markets?
NVDA comes out and crushes earnings sending the stock 3 standard deviations higher. Still all eyes are on the debt ceiling talks. Whether a debt ceiling deal will be good for markets largely depends on the specifics of the deal. If the U.S. defaults, or even comes close to defaulting on its debt because a…
Bears Start the Slide but How Far Will it Go? Your Guide to the Week Ahead.
It may have felt like a much larger sell-off but the markets ended the day down 1% with Oil rallying 2%. In tonight's video, we discuss the key stocks having earnings announcements this week including one big tech name and then discuss where we are and we're we're likely heading in stocks, bonds, Treasury Yields,…
The Unch'd Effect: Why Markets Feel so Hostile
We just broke out less than a week ago and you're already questioning the direction? You're experiencing the "Unch'd Effect." Today is a good example of the market finishing with no real direction and a tremendous amount of news bubbling just out of sight for market bulls. At the moment, participants are able to keep…
Are You Getting Gamma Squeezed?
-Evidence of gamma squeezing is everywhere -4211 hit! what now ? -is it over? Bonds and VVIX see RISK ! -No Pause? Fed Fund futures shift -can Foot Locker be contagious? -regional bank issues Get your trade on - This week's Profits and Losses -covered /ES short calls 50% gain -closed NVDA & QQQ Call…
Who's Afraid of More Rate Hikes?
In today's video we discuss hawkish comments from multiple Fed members and discuss the shifting outlook of a rate pause to a rate hike. In addition, we discuss the strengthening U.S. dollar and the historical inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and equities and we also look at the occasional positive correlation as an indication…
Stock Market Saviors: The Magnificent Seven Defying Market Weakness
Seven mega-cap stocks continue to keep the market in a tight range despite the banking crisis, inflation, and higher interest rates. It's still remains to be seen if the move higher today is the start of a breakout higher or a fake out. A review of the expected move for the week tells us even…
Your Mid-May Market Update: Sector Strength and Weakness so Far in 2023
Today's session continued the ongoing theme of "strong technology, weak financials" (and almost all other sector ETFs today). In tonight's Theo Video Update, we pinpoint the strongest two sectors, weakest sectors, and the others floating in-between strength and weakness so far in 2023 and how that's affecting our swing trading decisions, but also the broader…
Debt Ceiling Disco Heats Up, Time to Get Off the Floor?
Debt ceiling discussions are heating up as the X-date looms. As usual, all of the rhetoric is getting pretty thick as "default" looms large. How does this impact money market funds? Also, as the market meanders, are we setting up for another short squeeze. (KWEB, BABA, HAS, FUBO, UXIN, UPST, REAL, ERO, IE)
Markets Threaten to Break Lower as Tech Bid Sours
-6 weeks same range! -Single stock risk and the SP500 -how much longer can tech hold markets together -bull/bear case for US Treasury default -SKEW, VVIX risk builds Get your trade on -This week's Profits and Losses -covered /ES short calls 50% gain -closed BABA for a 30% gain, WMT exp SPX Expected Move-- -last…
Split Range Continues with Financial Weakness and Tech Strength - Your Stock and Sector Update
We had additional data that inflation is cooling - that's generally good - but the market still refuses to move meaningfully away from this 4200 level in the SP500. In tonight's video, we highlight the increasing split between key financial stocks and certain tech stocks and note why they're moving in different directions and what…