The Market’s in Downgrade Denial - Here’s What to Do
As we approach the close today, one might have assumed a much bigger response to Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt. We saw the S&P 500 notch a lukewarm 0.13% decline. Historically, though, the response to such downgrades has been much bigger the day of the downgrade and the coming weeks and months after. On August…
Monday, May 19, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
“We’re in Whale Week. Markets are stretched. Let’s talk momentum and smart exits.” It’s Monday, and Garrett kicks things off by breaking down the overbought conditions we’ve seen across the board — Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell — all coming off extended upside runs. The setup? Momentum peaked late April. Price stretched. Volume overbought.…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: This Sector Says Where We Are
Stocks are off the recent highs to start the week, and as I surfed “FinTwit” over the weekend in between my charting sessions, I still saw a lot of negativity surrounding the state of markets. Are we overbought near-term? Sure. Does that mean that we’re automatically going lower? Absolutely not. I talk about time a…
Upside Exuberance: From Gamma Squeezes to a Two-Sigma Move
We are closing out the week with some fireworks with markets clocking a two-sigma move to the upside, leaving the expected move in the dust. We were pricing in a 130-handle move in the SPX and got 300. That’s not a rally so much as a mispricing meltdown. It’s upside volatility. This is happening at…
What to Do with This “High Plains Drifter” Market
What to Do with This “High Plains Drifter” Market By Professor Jeffrey Bierman, CMT The market today reminds me of High Plains Drifter - a long, eerie calm stretched across a barren horizon. Everything looks deceptively stable: indexes hovering near highs, spreads tightening, VIX snoozing like a sedated dog. But don’t mistake this eerie stillness…
Friday, May 16, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
“It’s Friday, I’m in a hotel, and we’re still hammering trades. Let’s go.” Alright folks — Garrett here, not in the usual spot, but the mic’s working, the charts are up, and we’re not letting travel stop the flow. Today’s focus is classic:VWAP setups, momentum checks, and the 13F filing wave that just…
You Can Listen to Tech, or Doom-and-Gloom - It’s Up to You
Stocks are less than 5% away from their all-time highs now, and the “Great Chase” is on. Institutions and large funds got caught up in the doom-and-gloom headlines, and have only now begun to realize what’s happening. But our Sector Bullseye analysis kept us on the right side of the tape. Analysis can be pretty…
Why the Market’s Stuck (and Why That Won’t Last)
If you’ve been watching the market, particularly volatility and thinking, “Is this thing broken?” you’re not wrong. In April, Trump’s tariffs pushed the VIX top 60 during a flat-out market rout, but just a few weeks later… we’re seeing some of the lowest volatility we’ve had all year. It’s like the market’s stuck in mud.…
Thursday, May 15, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
“It’s 13F season — time to stop guessing and start reading what real money is doing.” Alright folks — it’s a classic start to the session: tech hiccups, camera off-center, haircut overdue, and somehow Garrett still finds time to riff about left vs. right in the house. But once he’s locked in? We’re…
Don’t Believe This Calm - It’s All Squeezes and Teases
This market feels calm… and that should scare you. If you’ve been with us for a while, you know that a quiet tape like this often sets the stage for outsized moves, like Monday’s upside explosion. Now, we’re sitting well outside the expected move in the SPX. Probability suggests we’re due for a pullback -…