Consumer Improves: Redbook Chase Before discussing the May retail sales report, let's look at the most up to date data from June. With the changes to the data coming quickly, you can say the high frequency results are more valuable than the older official results. When you are trying to decide wheth
Massive Reversal We are seeing wild trading sessions lately. Before the past 3 days, the main narrative had been that stocks did very little in the cash session. We would have between a 0.6% and 1.2% rally in the overnight futures session. Then, stocks would sell off slightly during the day, but sta
Fed To Buy Individual Corporate Bonds On Monday afternoon, the Fed announced it would buy individual corporate bonds to create a portfolio based on a broad diversified market index of corporate bonds. This caused stocks to rally about 1% on Monday which was weird because nothing was added to the sti
Relief Rally Friday’s trading session was the most unusual of the year. That’s saying something because of how extreme the volatility has been. Heading into the day, we expected at least a 1.5% rally as a bounce back to Thursday’s crash. S P 500 ended up 1.31% which isn’t surprising. A shocking part
Consumer Is Improving We’ve gotten some negative data on the consumer. Biggest one was the Redbook same store sales reading. However, most of the data has been good. As you can see from the chart below, consumer spending growth using Chase consumer cards improved this past week. That’s a boon to the
Market Crashes The market went from overbought to crashing very quickly. It's shocking how easy of a call this was. Some sold a lot of positions on Friday and then stocks went on a 3 day losing streak starting on Tuesday. This trade was easy because the signs were all there. Retail traders were push
Housing Is Strong The housing market is flat out strong. That’s weird to hear about a part of the economy because most of the economy is weak on an absolute basis, but improving on a rate of change basis. Housing market is strong and improving. That’s because the demand that usually occurs in March
Correction Is Beginning Fed gave the market its most dovish presentation possible, yet stocks still fell on Wednesday. That’s a powerful sign stocks are headed lower. This is the correction many have been predicting. Specifically, the S P 500 fell 0.53% on Wednesday which now puts it 1.3% off its be
Fed Doesn’t Change Rates In a surprise to no one, the Fed didn’t cut or hike rates. Most discussed quote by Powell was when he said, “We’re not thinking about raising rates. We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. What we’re thinking about is providing support for the economy. We
Irrelevant Tuesday Decline It’s as if stocks fell slightly on Tuesday to sprinkle in a down day every few days. We should hardly acknowledge that decline because this is one of the most euphoric markets most have ever seen. A 0.78% decline in the S P 500 and a 0.29% gain in the Nasdaq does nothing
