Jobless Claims Rise There is a lot of nuance to the jobless claims report. If you just look at the seasonal adjusted headline data, you’ll miss important details. In the week of September 5th, seasonally adjusted initial claims stayed the same at 884,000 which was above estimates for 828,000. It’s r
Druckenmiller Predicts Higher Inflation It's true that the stock market could recover for a few days, but the intermediate term result will be lower. Don’t take your eyes off the prize, just because stocks recovered on Wednesday. To paraphrase Druckenmiller: he said a 10% decline in the stock market
Same Store Sales Growth Falls Redbook same store sales growth in the week of September 5th fell sharply from 4.6% to -0.1%. Now we’re out of the back to school shopping season. It’s tough to glean much from one week of bad data after a string of good reports. Investors will be following the next few
Decline Not Over Some thought the correction would start on Tuesday because the pros tend to go on vacation before Labor Day. We did get a decline on Tuesday, but obviously the correction started last week. It’s amazing how people are saying the market has fallen too much, meaning the correction is
Spending Continues To Rebound Some economists believe that if we just wait a few more weeks, we will see a decline in consumer spending growth because of lowered jobless benefits. That’s the wrong approach. It's understandable that they want to highlight how bad the situation is for people who haven
Wild Friday Some may have thought a good jobs report would slow the correction. That’s not how this market works. What’s good for the economy is bad for the tech stocks which means the indexes fall. 10 year bond yield rose 8.3 basis points. If it continues to rise next week, there should be further
Great August Jobs Report Once again, the ADP report was too negative on job creation. In the past few months, it has been too negative, but at a lesser rate each time. At this pace, in the next few months it will re-couple with the BLS report. We won’t be discounting the ADP report next
Stocks Finally Fall The stock market finally fell on Thursday as the momentum tech stocks were responsible for most of the losses. There was profit taking. Stocks that have done the best this summer fell, even the value/cyclical stocks. In the near term, most don’t expect the moderately overbought c
Jobless Claims Fall Jobless claims report from the week of August 29th had a few nuances that make looking at the seasonally adjusted headline reading or any other headlines misleading. Seasonally adjusted claims fell from 1.011 million to 881,000 which was below the consensus of 958,000 and the low
Mania Knows No Bounds This stock market can’t go down. It only goes up. S P 500 increased 1.5% on Wednesday even though it came into the day showing extreme greed on the CNN fear and greed index. S P 500 is now up 10.84% on the year. It has officially been a better than average year
