Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - The Week Heading Into The First Rate Cut Before getting into Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - let's review the current market conditions. Stocks are heading into a historically positive period. Although, there isn’t much data to go by. As you can see from the cha
Stocks Choppy - Present Day Has Nice Monday Rally Stocks Choppy might be the case before the 2020 election. For now stocks are enjoying a nice rally. There wasn’t much news on Monday as most earnings reports are later in the week. Chicago Fed index was the only macroeconomic report that came out. St
Economic Growth - Negative Revision To April Chicago Fed Index Economic Growth was below average, yet there is still no recession. June Chicago Fed National Activity index was released on Monday. It was -2 basis points which missed estimates for no change. Any time the index is negative, it means gr
Stocks Selloff - Hawkish Fed Pushed Stocks Lower Stocks Selloff and fell modestly on Friday because the Fed took the 50 basis point rate cut off the table. Fed is lucky the stock market hasn’t reacted that much to the wild swings in the Fed funds futures market. S P 500 and the Nasdaq had their
Fed Turns Hawkish - Very Odd Statements By Fed Members Fed Turns Hawkish and was extremely inconsistent on Thursday and Friday. It confused just about everyone following along. Heading into Thursday, we thought the Fed could cut rates twice. But it was only about a 20% to 30% possibility. Then, Clar
Massive Volatility - Stocks Reverse Course On Rate Cut Hopes With expectations of Massive Volatility, the Fed funds futures market moved towards expecting 2 rate cuts in July. This happened on Thursday which pushed the market higher. Especially and even after Netflix and CSX’s poor earnings reports.
Housing Permits - Solid MBA Applications Before getting into Housing Permits let's review the MBA Applications. MBA applications and NAHB housing market index are on an island where the results are great. Off that island we have home price growth falling, weak permits, and new home sales that have p
Netflix - Stocks Fall On Weak Earnings Netflix and CSX fell on the weak earnings statements. Let that be a lesson to only follow aggregate earnings data not the headlines. There will obviously be bad quarters throughout this earnings season as always. But only the aggregate results will tell you how
Beige Book - Redbook Sales Growth Falls Before getting into the Fed's Beige Book let's review Redbook Sales. In the week of July 13th, Redbook sales growth fell sharply from 6.2% to 4.7%. Keep in mind, this is yearly growth, so the strong growth in the previous week had nothing to do with this weakn
