Thursday, December 11, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Back to Balance — Range in Controlby Tony Rago Big overnight range and a full retrace of that FOMC spike puts us right back inside the same balance we’ve been trading for nearly two weeks. When a market retraces an entire catalyst move, it’s telling you the auction wasn’t ready to accept higher prices —…
Wednesday, December 10, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
FED Day — Two Sessions in Oneby Tony Rago It’s FED Day with the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m. and the press conference rolling in at 2:30, and that alone splits the session into two distinct tapes — pre-FED drift and post-FED volatility. Early action usually stays controlled as participants position lightly, and that’s…
Tuesday, December 9, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Carving the Range Before the Fedby Tony Rago We’re carving out a clean range as the market settles in ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC, and that usually means the first move isn’t always the real one. I’m expecting more range-bound action into the announcement, but the JOLTS release at 10 a.m. has enough weight to spark…
Monday, December 8, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
FED Week on Deck — Time to Lock Inby Tony Rago New week, fresh tape, and plenty of opportunity as we roll into FED Week and kick off contract rollover — a combo that tends to stir up pockets of volatility. I’ll take the action as it comes, but the weekly opens are my anchors…
The Rhythm Markets Actually Follow
Friday morning, I drew something on the chart I've watched play out thousands of times. "Contraction, expansion, retracement. Contraction, expansion, retracement. Right on and on and on to the break of dawn." The entire week had been building toward that Friday breakout. Monday through Thursday, we chopped inside a tight range. The market was consolidating.…
Thursday, December 4, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Stalled at the Top — Waiting for a Sparkby Tony Rago Quiet overnight action kept us pinned in a tight range, and the market is still consolidating up here without the kind of aggressive buyers needed to break through the top. At the same time, sellers aren’t showing much initiative either, which leaves us drifting…
Wednesday, December 3, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Range Pressure Building — Expansion on Deckby Tony Rago We’re still stuck in a range with NQ doing its best to lift ES, but the real test comes down to one thing: ES needs to close back above its weekly open on the daily. We’ve been consolidating here for three straight sessions — that kind…
Tuesday, December 2, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Weekly Opens on Deckby Tony Rago ES bulls need to reclaim their weekly open and press into 6,888 — that’s the zone where momentum can finally shift from choppy to constructive. Same story on NQ: hold above the weekly open and make a clean push toward 25,633. Until then, we’re sitting in that familiar mid-week…
Monday, December 1st, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
New Month, New Levelsby Tony Rago Price finally relaxed after that holiday push into 6,862 on ES and 25,500 on NQ, giving us room to check the structure beneath. We’ve got weekly pivots sitting just under 6,800 at 6,782 on ES and 25,115 on NQ — clean, well-defined spots where buyers and sellers tend to…
The Trader's Most Expensive Lesson Doesn't Cost a Dime
Tuesday morning, I did something I don't do often enough. I slowed down. Instead of jumping straight into trades like I normally do, I walked traders through the exact risk parameters I use on every single position: The 15-handle stop The plus-minus 10 violation threshold Why I trade two contracts minimum How I take profit…