Hunting Real AI Value Amid the AI Hype
The AI conversation certainly isn’t new, but the market’s response to it is evolving. We’ve seen months of momentum behind the names that dominate the narrative: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Palantir (PLTR), and the like. But now it’s not just about who builds the biggest model, it’s about who supports the infrastructure, who quietly enables…
The Market’s on Valium – Here’s the Wakeup Call
We’re looking at a market that’s decided risk just doesn’t exist. None. Zip. Nada. The VIX is parked while the S&P’s swinging 70 points intraday like it’s nothing. That’s a market in denial. It’s comatose. Volatility, or rather the weird lack of it, tells me we’re brushing up against peak complacency. Retail’s still buying every…
The Bulls Are Trying to Repair This Tape
Earlier this week, I pointed out some cracks beginning to appear in the price action, and I’m on the record as saying we’re likely in the later stages of the current rally. But I also said I wasn’t ready to pull the ripcord on all my long positions, like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices…
Let the Games Begin: Earnings Season Opens with Banks
Earnings season kicks off tomorrow with the big guns, like JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and this one could set the tone for the rest of the year. Expectations are lower than they have been, but with valuations stretched (CAPE P/E is near COVID-era highs) even small surprises could trigger outsized moves. So the…
Trump Tells the Markets TACO Time Is Over
It’s Lucy-and-the-football all over again, and traders are flat on their backs wondering what the hell just happened. Trump happened, that’s what. He just put the markets on notice – the “Trump Always Chickens Out” tariff reversal “TACO trade” is finished. You might not know if from the action on the surface; there’s still some…
The Best Way to Stack the Odds in Your Favor in This Market
Tonight we’re going to look at how to use a different kind of tool to target the kinds of opportunities this weird, choppy market is throwing our way. After all, today we got 30 minutes of selling followed by six hours of almost continuous melt-up on the back of a handful of stocks. We’re going…
There Are 4 Trillion Reasons to Fade This Market
I recorded tonight’s video just minutes before the cash close, and if you're glancing at the S&P 500 – up 34 handles – thinking, "Hey, everything looks great out there!" you’d better pump the brakes. Because there are massive divergences unfolding right now beneath this market. Nvidia kissed that $4 trillion market cap, but don’t…
How to Get Ready for the Junk Rally
I have to say I'm relieved stocks didn’t rip higher yesterday – it gives the bulls a bit more runway. But the real question at this point is: What kind of bulls are left to drive this next leg? We’re going to dig into that in a moment. Right now, my main focus is locking…
We’re at the Crossroads – Here’s Where to Go Next
Every once in a while the markets reach a point – nosebleed levels – where the bulls feel like they have all the momentum… and the bears feel as though there’s nothing to lose. This is what we’ll call a “crossroads.” In this instance, though, there isn't a pointer to clue you in on the…
Holy Crap - SPX Breached Expected Move Twice
Holy crap… Look, even the most cockeyed optimist would have to be looking at this market right now and going like, "I can't believe the S&P is trading 6321." But here's what's really got me fired up - we just had our second consecutive week of breaching expected moves. That's not normal, okay? That's manic.…