Tuesday, December 23, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Holiday Tape — Stay Patientby Tony Rago We’re setting up for more holiday-style trade today — lower volatility, thinner participation, and a slow grind kind of tape. The open should still matter, though. Typically you’ll see the most opportunity in that first hour as overnight positioning gets sorted out, then activity tapers off as the…
Monday, December 22, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Holiday Tape, Opening Range Rulesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities — but context matters. With Christmas week here, volume typically thins out as we move closer to the holiday, which can exaggerate moves and make levels more important than ever. Bulls pushed price higher into the close, setting a constructive tone, but in lighter…
The Framework That Replaces Guessing
Wednesday morning, CPI data dropped and the NQ was sitting at a critical inflection point. Traders in my room wanted to know what to do. Buy the level because it's on the chart? Short into strength? Wait for confirmation? I walked them through exactly how I think about these moments. "I don't ever just like…
Friday, December 19, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
OPEX in Play — Let the Tape Breatheby Tony Rago Big OPEX on deck after a wild, wave-filled week, and that alone can change the character of the tape. When options expire, positioning pressure often eases, which can lead to more two-sided trade and wider rotations. So far, bulls have done a solid job containing…
Thursday, December 18, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
CPI Bounce — Can It Stick?by Tony Rago CPI delivered a pre-market bounce, giving bulls an early opportunity to press — but it’s conditional. On ES, buyers need to hold 6,800 and 6,812 on any pullback to keep this move constructive. Those levels matter because they define whether the CPI reaction is real demand or…
Wednesday, December 17, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Waiting on Leadershipby Tony Rago Choppy conditions continue as we work through the contract roll, and that’s kept things a bit noisy and less directional than usual. Right now, we’re stuck inside a range that’s already been well-defined, and there’s a real chance we simply continue to chop unless one side steps up with conviction.…
Tuesday, December 16, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Gaps Filled — Edge Still Up for Grabsby Tony Rago Roll gaps have now been filled on both ES and NQ, clearing out some of that unfinished business from the contract rollover. We’ve also got jobs data hitting this morning, which adds another variable as we head into the open. For now, price is still…
Monday, December 15, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
New Week, Fresh Tapeby Tony Rago New week means new opportunity, and we officially roll into the H26 contracts today. There’s still respectable volume hanging out in Z25, so if that’s your comfort zone, you can work it for now — just be aware the transition itself can add a little noise. ES continues to…
Why the Stops Exist
Tuesday afternoon, the bond auction hit the tape and the NQ ripped against my position. "I just took a full stop-loss on this trade." No hesitation. No moving the stop. No hoping for a bounce. The market surged, my stop triggered, and I was out. I watched the trade I had been short move sharply…
Friday, December 12, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Holding the Line Into Fridayby Tony Rago Nice breakout above the weekly open sent ES up through 6,926, leaving that 6,933 tag unfinished — and the market rarely forgets unfinished business. We opened last night with a small gap down, putting the gap fill at 6,925, and bulls will want to defend a pullback into…