2019 GDP Growth - China Expects Between 6% and 6.5%
2019 GDP Growth - Slight Tuesday Decline Before getting into 2019 GDP Growth, let's review the stock market. The stock market fell again on Tuesday. S&P 500 fell 0.11%, Nasdaq fell 2 basis points, and Russell 2000 fell 0.45%. Bears are always quick to jump on any move lower after a long winning streak. They tend…
Non-Manufacturing ISM Report was Amazing
Non-Manufacturing ISM Report - Another Weak Redbook Report Investors are starting to get concerned with the sharp decline in Redbook same store sales growth. It fell from 5.2% to 4.2% in the week of March 2nd. That’s the slowest pace in 10 months. Month to date sales were down 1.6%; that’s the 8th consecutive negative reading. The…
Stocks Recover After Monday Morning Dip
Stocks Recover - After Modest Fall The stock market opened higher before plummeting in the late morning and recovering in the afternoon. From the peak early in the morning to the trough later in the day, the S&P 500 fell 1.72%. It felt like the market would finally roll over. Traders on Twitter were gearing…
Global Manufacturing Falls To A 32 Month Low
Global Manufacturing Falls - Weak Markit Manufacturing PMI The Markit manufacturing PMI was 53 in February which fell from 54.9 in January. This is the slowest rate of manufacturing growth since August 2017. Inflation eased, but the rate of output and new order growth slowed. This report supports most other manufacturing metrics which show manufacturing growth…
Bear Market Repealed - S&P 500 Surpasses 2,800 For The First Time Since November
Bear Market Repealed Almost Fully Bear Market Repealed on Another solid rally on Friday that brought the S&P 500 very close to its record high in September. And it fully repeals the quick bear market. Investors feared the worst in December. But now it’s clear America is only in a slowdown and is outperforming most…
Q4 GDP Growth Estimate Beat - Stocks Ignore It
Q4 GDP Growth Beats Estimates The stock market fell on Thursday. Yet quarter over quarter annualized GDP growth beat estimates for 2.2%. It was 2.6%. 2018 was the first year since 2004 where GDP growth was above 2% in all four quarters (2.2%, 4.2%, 3.4%, and 2.6%). Stocks ignored the solid report because information on…
Redbook Sales Solid, MBA Applications, & Pending Home Sales
Redbook Sales - Same Store Sales Growth Moderates Redbook sales year over year same store sales growth rate of 5.4% last week supported the strong consumer sentiment reading. Growth fell to 5.2% this week which is still above the 4.6% growth of 2 weeks ago. The deceleration from 9.3% in December has stalled for now.…
Consumer Expectations Soar On Rising Stock Market
Consumer Expectations - Confidence Rises The stock market is usually thought of as a reflection of the future economy. However, through the reflexivity theory, the stock market can cause changes to the economy. Volatility paired with the trade war and the government shutdown to take down consumer confidence and other soft data reports. Noteworthy due…
Bad Earnings Reports Cause Individual Stock Crashes After Hours
Bad Earnings Reports - Mixed Wednesday Action The market was mostly flat on Wednesday. S&P 500 fell 5 basis points, the Nasdaq rose 7 basis points, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.23%. Biggest action was in the after hours session as many tech stocks fell. During the normal trading session, the worst 2 sectors…
QT - Fed to End It Sometime Between Late 2019 & Late 2020
QT - Mixed Dallas Manufacturing Fed Report Before getting into QT or Quantitative Tightening, let's review the Philly Fed. Relatively speaking, the Dallas Fed report was solid because the Philly Fed report was negative and the Markit flash PMI fell. The production index was down 4.4 points to 10.1 and the general business activity index…