Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Improves While Consumer Confidence Wanes
Redbook Same Store Sales - Big Tuesday Rally Redbook same store sales - If the market’s goal is to rally past the September record high without getting too overbought, the market is acting smartly. Corrections in early March and last Friday took some froth out of it. CNN fear and greed index is only at…
National Activity - Neither The Fed Nor The Market Accurately Forecast Rates
National Activity Index Falls The February Chicago Fed national activity index should please the bears as it was -0.29. Technically, this index fell from last month because January’s reading was revised from -0.43 to -0.25. Somehow, the 3 month moving average was revised down from 0.16 to 0. Previous reports must have been revised lower.…
Banks The Cheapest Versus Overall Stock Market In 40 Years
Banks The Cheapest - Mixed Monday Action Banks the cheapest - Following the volatile Friday action, the stock market was mostly flat on Monday, with small caps outperforming. Those who thought the stock market would continue its weakness were mistaken as the market recovered late in the day. Most discussed topic among investors was the yield…
Slowing Economic Growth Starting To Affect Stock Prices
Slowing Economic Growth - Weak Markit Reports March flash Markit reports signaled economic weakness accelerated. This was a sharp put down of the rally in stocks this year. At some point, the slowdown needs to end for the stock market to reach its record high. That has been my issue with this rally. It’s possible that…
German 10 Year Yield Falls Negative & Utilities Soar
German 10 Year Yield - Stocks Crater In A Much Needed Selloff German 10 Year Yield - Two of the most prominent reasons given as to why stocks sold off on Friday were the very weak German Markit manufacturing PMI and the flattening yield curve. They support the narrative that global growth is slowing. The German manufacturing…
Housing Market Index Solid & Strong Existing Home Sales
Housing Market Index Housing market should be improving. Specifically due to the decline in rates, increase in real wage growth, and the decline in housing price growth. However, even with these positives, we’ve only seen a modest uptick on top of weak sales last year. Most of the sales growth has been limited to the…
Stocks - S&P 500 Needs To Increase 2.66% To Hit A New Record
Stocks Make A New 2019 High Stocks - After selling off because of trade worries and the Fed on Wednesday, stocks ramped higher on Thursday. S&P 500 increased 1.09%, Nasdaq increased 1.42%, and Russell 2000 increased 1.25%. Apple helped drive the gains as its stock increased 3.68% on excitement over its streaming and news services…
Scooters Rule Transportation In Cities
Scooters - Revolution Scooters - The revolution of electric scooter and bike apps is much more powerful than ridesharing. That’s because ridesharing is more expensive than scooters because you must pay the driver. Plus, the depreciation and maintenance of cars is much more than it is for scooters. Many people have over-exaggerated how quickly self-driving…
Treasuries Rally & Yield Curve Flattens
Treasuries Rally - Reaction To Fed Statement Treasuries Rally - The bond market’s reaction to the Fed’s decision and guidance was pretty sharp. Especially when you consider that none of its decisions were surprising. In theory, when an event meets estimates the market shouldn’t react. However, that’s not always the case. Sometimes what you think…
Lowering Guidance To 0 Hikes In 2019 - Fed Matches Expectations
Lowering Guidance - Fed Does Exactly What’s Expected Fed did exactly what I expected. It didn’t raise rates, lowered guidance to no hikes this year, and gave clarification on the balance sheet unwind. Fed plans to shrink the unwind from $30 billion per month to $15 billion from May to September. Then end the unwind…