Income Growth Improved In November (126 Months With No Recession)
Existing Home Sales Disappoint Considering how great housing starts, permits, and home builder sentiment were, it’s surprising the November existing home sales report was weak. It wasn’t a disaster, but it did fall from last month and miss the low end of the expectations range. Existing home sales in October were revised from 5.46 million…
Stocks Are Very Due For A Pullback
Extreme Greed Again This has been one of the best runs for stocks in recent memory as they continued to power higher on Thursday despite being very overbought. 14 day relative strength index was at 71.98 on Wednesday. With the 0.45% rally in the S&P 500 on Thursday, we expect it to be at least…
Leading Index Nearly Gives Off Recessionary Warning
Jobless Claims Fall As Expected Last week jobless claims skyrocketed 49,000 probably because of seasonal reasons. That week has the most variance of the year which means it’s the least important report. Personally, I never overreact to one week of data, but that added another reason to ignore the spike. As expected, claims fell in…
Yield Curve Steepens, But Don’t Worry About A Recession
S&P 500 Ends Its Winning Streak S&P 500 ended its winning streak by nearly the slimmest of margins as it fell just 4 basis points on Wednesday. Only thing this does is end the winning streak. That’s one less argument the bears have that stocks are overbought. They still are overbought though. CNN fear and…
Hiring Growth Falls & Stocks Are Expensive
Openings Increased & Hiring Fell October JOLTS report wasn’t great because hiring fell. Openings being up doesn’t counter the decline in hiring as openings have been above hiring for a few years. If an opening doesn’t lead to a hire, it doesn’t matter much. If openings being above hiring made you think the labor market…
5 Day Winning Streak Makes Stock Overbought
Another Record High For Stocks Stocks barely increased on Tuesday, but it was still another record high. S&P 500 is on a 5 day winning streak. That’s its longest winning streak in a month. S&P 500 is now up 27.35% year to date. CNN fear and greed index increased 3 points to 85 which is…
Housing Data Shows No 2020 Recession
Fund Managers Have Gotten More Optimistic A few months ago, investors in the Bank of America survey were calling for a recession. That has changed as we have seen in the recent surveys. As you can see from the chart below, the yearly change in the global manufacturing PMI has improved, but it’s still negative.…
Stocks Have Best Decade Since The 1950s & What Could Ruin 2020’s Returns
Another Big Rally For Stocks 2019 is finishing strong. Stocks are beginning to look frothy according to some metrics. That’s going to happen when the S&P 500 is on a 4 day winning streak and is up 27.31% year to date. You can say this is a Santa Clause rally. But really it’s a continuation…
Housing Markit Index Spikes To The Highest Level In 20 Years
Big Improvement In Housing Market Index Housing market index increased from 71 to 76 in December which beat estimates for 70. The original November report was revised from 70. As you can see from the chart below, this was the best reading in 20 years. It’s quite interesting to see such a high level. It…
Stocks Don’t Rally On Small Trade Deal
More Details On The Trade Deal Phase 1 of the trade deal has been agreed to, but this doesn’t look much different than the other times the 2 sides agreed to delay or suspend tariffs. This isn’t a grand deal where tough decisions were made. That explains why the stock market didn’t roar higher on…