ISM Services PMI Falls & Markit PMI Rises
Services PMI Déjà vu (ISM Falls) November ISM services PMI fell and the Markit PMI rose. This is just like the manufacturing sector. One difference is the ISM manufacturing PMI was below the Markit reading. This time the ISM reading was higher (the gap just narrowed). It's more normal as the Markit PMI is usually…
Details On Trade Negotiations Are Released
2 Day Winning Streak Just like last month, the stock market is following a losing streak with a winning streak as it is up for 2 straight days. The calendar effect might be helping stocks as December is usually a great month. Interestingly, following years with gains of 20% or more, the average annual return…
ADP Private Sector Job Creation Misses All Estimates
Recession Odds Decline According to the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, odds of a recession have declined recently. However, the most recent data in this report is always the least reliable. It gets updated after the fact when new data comes out. For example, the November industrial production report hasn’t come out yet. When it does,…
Is The Trade Deal Back On?
Stocks Recover Some Of Their Recent Losses: Trade Deal Back On? In a repeat of Monday’s manufacturing PMI data, the Markit services PMI improved and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell. Motor vehicle sales report rose after a weak October reading. ADP report was weak which only matters if it correctly signals weakness in the BLS…
Solid Cyber Monday & Markit Manufacturing Data
Strong Cyber Monday Redbook same store sales growth was 7.9% in the week of November 30th which was up from 4.3% and the highest reading since early January. You’d think that growth spike was because of Black Friday being a week later, but last week had 4.3% growth, meaning there wasn’t a decline in growth because…
Stocks Fall As Reports Show No Trade Deal In 2019
3 Day Losing Streak For Stocks Finally, the correction many had been predicting is starting; stocks declined. Namely, stocks fell on Tuesday because of worries about trade. It doesn’t look like there will be a trade deal by the December 15th soft deadline. S&P 500 fell 0.66% which brings the 3 day losses to 1.92%. I…
Weak Manufacturing ISM PMI Sends Down Q4 GDP Growth Nowcast
Quick Q3 GDP Review: No Negative Growth A big story in the past few weeks has been that 2H 2019 GDP growth isn’t as bad as was feared in October. Real final sales growth should still be mediocre, but headline GDP growth isn’t close to going negative. You don’t need to see negative GDP growth…
Stocks Fall On Weak ISM Manufacturing PMI, Despite Strong Black Friday
Stocks Start December With A Bust? The stock market fell on Monday which isn’t a surprise because it was very overbought heading into the week. S&P 500’s 0.86% decline was its worst decline to start a December since 2008. That’s “nice to know”, but not a stat you can make trades based on. Stocks rallied…
Consumer Confidence Falls Right Before Holiday Shopping Season
House Price Growth Might Be Bottoming In the MBA report from the week of November 22nd, the seasonally adjusted purchase applications index was down 1% on a weekly basis after it increased 7%. On a yearly basis, it was up 55% because last year, this week included Thanksgiving and this time it didn’t. It’s not…
73% Chance Stocks Drop In The Next Week
Extreme Euphoria Is Back With the rally in stocks on Wednesday, investors have once again become extremely bearish in the short term. Stocks are even more overbought than they were before that 3 day decline in late November. As of Tuesday, the 14 day RSI was at 74.4. With the rally on Wednesday, I’m guessing…