Earnings Revisions Predicted The October Swoon
Earnings Revisions - Predicted Stocks Would Fall Earnings Scout chart on earnings estimate revisions versus the S&P 500 did a great job of forecasting the volatility in October. I always put various economic and stock market related research into my articles. It gives readers an understanding of the bullish and bearish arguments. And it helps…
Business Investment Growth Falls Sharply
Business Investment Growth - Beige Book The Fed’s Beige Book gives us great insight into why stocks have been volatile in October. The Fed used the word “tariff(s)” 51 times which is up from 41 in its previous report, making it the high of the year. It’s worth noting the use of the word “trade”…
Weak Housing Market | Strong Markit PMI
Weak Housing Market - MBA Mortgage Index Increases Week Over Week Home builder stocks suddenly are cratering. Also, banks are falling on worries that high mortgage rates will stifle demand for loans. Housing reports are the most important economic reports to review. There were three reports on Wednesday. First, we have the MBA mortgage applications…
Stocks Crash Then Rebound On Tuesday
Stocks Crash - Heightened Volatility On Tuesday Tuesday was extremely volatile as it had the feeling of a bear market rally. The stock market was oversold coming into the day. But the S&P 500 still fell 2.34% at its worst point in the day. It rallied in the afternoon to only close down 0.55%. This…
Bear Market - 74% Of The Signposts Have Been Triggered
Bear Market - Weak Richmond Fed Survey The Richmond Fed index fell from 29 in September to 14 in October. This missed the consensus for 24 and the lowest estimate which was 16. Weakest component was shipments which fell from 33 to 7. Volume of new orders fell from 34 to 20. There aren’t quotes…
Financials Fear Rising Rates As Housing Market Weakens
Financials Fear - Stocks Weak Again On Monday The S&P 500 fell 0.43% as it was dragged down by the financials. Nasdaq rallied 0.26% as tech outperformed. Russell 2000 fell 0.16%. Because Russell 2000 firms have a large percentage of their debt in floating rate bonds, rising rates hurt this index. CNN fear and greed…
Mid-Term Elections Shouldn’t Hurt Stocks
Mid-Term Elections - Consumer Confidence In The Government Election Day is November 6th in America. The entire House of Representatives and 1/3rd of the Senate are up for election. This article will analyze what that means for the stock market. First, below is the University of Michigan chart. It shows consumer confidence in government economic…
Extreme Fear - Fed To Hike Rates Until Something Breaks
Extreme Fear Continues The S&P 500 fell 4 basis points. Dow rallied 0.26% because Proctor and Gamble beat earnings estimates. This caused its stock to increase 8.8%. The Nasdaq fell 0.48% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.2%. Advanced Micro Devices was the biggest loser in the S&P 500 as it fell 11.1%. The best sectors…
Shanghai Composite Down 30.12% Since January 26th
Shanghai Composite - Weakness In China Let’s get back to possibly the biggest topic of the year. That is the crash in Chinese stocks and the weakness in its economy. The table below breaks down the Chinese market’s performance in the past year using the new sectors. As you can see, the median communication services stock…
Industrial Production Growth - Very Strong
Industrial Production - Solid Growth The industrial production report is always pivotal in measuring the economy. It’s especially important now that we've disconnected soft indicators from the hard reports. It’s interesting that the September ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly. However, industrial production growth accelerated on a year over year basis. It also beat estimates on a…