It’s Not Business, It’s Personal
I’m wrapping up my first real vacation in 5+ years down in sunny Florida. Though my laptop only collected dust for three days, my mental batteries are now charged fuller than a Tesla at a Supercharger station. Those three days of peace gave me something rare: time to think. And perfect timing too, because this…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: The Market Is Trying to Heal
Hello TheoTrader, The global equity realignment is still ongoing, as the market’s internals here in the U.S. tell us defensiveness is the proper position. But in reality, the selling has been pretty orderly thus far. The meaning behind this runs deep. For years, U.S.-based traders have been spoiled - all the exciting action was taking…
QE, But for Crypto?
It’s been a while since we’ve uttered the words quantitative easing, and for good reason. Markets have been operating smoothly without the Fed’s infamous program, and even amidst the selling we’ve seen lately, it’s been fairly orderly. But has this orderly market carried over into cryptocurrencies? Hardly. Many cryptos staged impressive rallies after Sunday’s initial…
The Pressure Eases for U.S. Stocks, But Be Careful…
The bulls took out some key technical lows today, and, as of this writing, shorts are getting squeezed in a lot of places. Crypto has been very volatile over the past few days, even after Trump’s announcement of a “strategic crypto reserve” consisting of a few select tokens. At the same time, the greenback is…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Making Bets on the Money
The market’s turbulence continued last week, although we wrapped up the week with a split tape. Only the Dow finished higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down. That isn’t exactly my definition of a “risk-on” market environment. Nonetheless, bulls made some modest strides last week, which I’ll share in just a moment. The…
How to Do What I Do When the Market Drops
For a while there, it appeared as though all the negative market sentiment was unfounded, but then last Friday, we saw the market’s internals deteriorate quickly, which forced me to shift my market outlook to the defensive. To be clear, I don’t think this is going to last long, but time is only one part…
The Market’s Gone Risk-Off - Here’s What’s Next
You don’t have to be a seasoned stock technician that reads charts in their sleep to be able to sense something has changed in this market - and, depending on your point of view, not for the better. The folks following along with me in TheoChat got warning of this on Friday, when our model…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Staples Surge on a Dime
It’s been a volatile earnings season to say the least. Coming into last week, we saw positive market internals, but then, on Friday, a sudden, tremendous shift occurred. This earnings season has been marked by two-sided action. Earnings misses have been punished viciously, while earnings beats have only been modestly rewarded. Now we’re starting to…
Here’s Why Capital Flows Are Shifting
There are seismic shifts taking place in the market right now. 2025 has pretty much started off as expected with stocks making new all-time highs in the U.S. Our reading of sector flows kept us on the right side of the market year-to-date. But the biggest developments have been going on abroad, and I want…
Our Chinese Stocks Idea Is Taking Off Like a Shot
U.S. indexes are having a relatively quiet start to this holiday-shortened trading week. We see them spinning their wheels near all-time highs. Bearish sentiment remains elevated, delivering a ready-made “wall of worry” for the bull market to climb. But, while the action (or lack thereof) here in the United States seems sleepy and subdued, events…