Recovery Tracker Falls By now you know the economy has been weakening in the past 3 weeks. We saw more evidence of this in the Oxford Economics recovery tracker. As you can see from the chart below, the tracker has fallen in 2 of the past 3 weeks. This index fell 0.4 to 75.6 in
Very Mild Tuesday Decline S P 500 fell 1.08% on Tuesday in what could be described as an extremely mild decline. S P 500 just tied the record for days with at least a 0.5% rally (5 days). Clearly, there is a great deal of momentum that needs to be reversed. A modest decline on Tuesday didn’t
COVID-19 Seems to Get Worse COVID-19 is looking even worse in the south and the west. For example, 54 Florida hospitals in 25 counties are at full intensive care unit capacity. Furthermore, on July 7th in Orange County California hospitalizations were up 35 in 2 days to 659 which is a record high. I
Chinese Bubble We are in an unusual period where the Nasdaq is up 14 of the past 16 trading days, yet the American market isn’t the most overbought equity market. China takes the cake as its 3 major indexes all have 14 day RSIs above 80. It’s very rare for the S P 500’s RSI to
No More V Originally, in March and April almost everyone said a V shaped recovery was an insane concept. People were discussing a potential depression. As the strong economic data came out in May and the beginning of June, some switched to calling for a V shaped recovery and others switched to calli
Disappointing Thursday At first glance, it looks like the stock market had a nice day after a solid jobs report. However, the stock market’s reaction was weak because the jobs report is old news. The economy has slowed since the survey week of the BLS report. While the stock market extended its winn
Economy Slowing? Investors were eagerly awaiting this jobless claims report because the economy appears to have weakened in the 2nd half of June due to COVID-19. There is also the fact that in mid-June we reached the end of most of the states reopening. We had an initial burst every time a state reo
3rd Rally In A Row: Cloud Stocks Explode On Wednesday, the S P 500 rallied 0.5% as it looked to head into the holiday weekend on a winning streak. If the market rallies on Thursday, it will only be the 2nd 4 day winning streak in 5 months. Russell 2000 was actually down 0.97% as investors shunned en
Economy Is Slowing This economy is slowing because of the increase in COVID-19 cases. And the stock market is ignoring this unless you think the 7% correction priced this in. A problem with that logic is over half of that correction has been rescinded even though we have no evidence the slowdown is
Amazing Q2 S P 500 increased 19.94% in Q2 which was the best Q2 since 1938. The market was 6 basis points away from having the first down 20% quarter followed by an up 20% quarter since 1932. We are in rarified territory even though this mark was barely missed. This was the S P 500’s biggest
