Category: TheoDark Report

TheoDark Report

Fed Post-Mortem: A Whole Bunch Of Nothing

“Capitalism can’t exist at these levels.” That’s the take from (former) bond kind Bill Gross following Wednesday’s farce of a Fed “decision.” The idea that this was a “live” meeting was of course a joke, strong June jobs print or no strong June jobs print. As we put it in a column published elsewher

TheoDark Report

Black Swan Walking

Watching the Democratic National Convention has turned out to be even more surreal than watching the GOP convention. What’s amusing is that the Democrats seemingly learned very little from the Republican primary race. Apparently, it still hasn’t occurred to anyone that you can’t call someone evil an

TheoDark Report

Expectations Can Be A Dangerous Thing

Sometimes there’s nothing worse than “expectations.” Allow us to give you a poignant example. This is from BNP on Monday (summarized by Bloomberg): “BNP Paribas favors holding long XAU/JPY and USD/JPY positions via options heading into Friday’s BOJ meeting as the bank’s economists expect a 20bp IOER

TheoDark Report

Common Sense Isn’t So Common These Days

Whenever you notice people have stopped applying common sense to their investment decisions, it might be a good time to go looking for an exit. Here’s something you might not have noticed today: So that’s Santander Consumer and it’s down sharply after announcing it would delay reporting Q2 results d

TheoDark Report

Post-Pokemon Panic, “Crude” Realities Weigh On Sentiment As Central Banks Eyed

“Monday, Monday, can’t trust that day.” Global markets are off to a shaky start in a week that includes a Fed meeting, a BoJ meeting, and some key economic data out of the US. As Deutsche Bank’s Joseph LaVorgna writes in a note from the future (note the highlighted commentary in the image below), “F

TheoDark Report

Don’t Confuse Your Politics With Your Trades

It’s often difficult to talk about the interplay between politics and markets without ruffling a few feathers. But you have to be able to separate your politics from your trades. You may think you’re unequivocally right in your political convictions but guess what? If the majority of market particip

TheoDark Report

Your Guide To Next Week’s Fed And BoJ Pow-wows

Get ready for another week dominated by central banks. What else is new, right? We’ll get the Fed on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday and make no mistake, these are important meetings. As you’re probably well aware, the FOMC has increasingly embraced its role as the guardian of global stabi

TheoDark Report

“Trade-Offs”: The UK Sends A Subtle Warning

You have to love Richard Breslow. He’s a former FX trader and fund manager and he now writes daily commentary for Bloomberg that usually hits our inbox at around 3:30 a.m. It’s almost worth staying up for. We quote him often and today he didn’t disappoint. Here’s an excerpt: “After the BOE and ECB m

TheoDark Report

Goldman Has A Simple Message For You: Buy Puts Now

One of the rather disturbing things about today’s markets is that the sellside is increasingly incredulous and confused about what’s going on. To be sure, you always want to approach anything the Street says with an appropriate level of caution - that is, take it with a grain of salt. That goes doub