Extreme Bullishness Stocks hit a record high on Wednesday as the S P 500 was up 0.94% and the VIX recoiled from its gains on Tuesday falling to 11.54. There hasn’t been much of an effect from the crash in cryptocurrencies as I expected. If stocks continue on this unprecedented streak, I could see th
E-Trade Survey Shows Retail Investors Are Optimistic Stocks rallied on Wednesday as good earnings reports helped the market regain momentum after Tuesday’s reversal. That means we can continue our discussion on how overly optimistic some investors have become. The table below shows an E-Trade of sur
Wild Tuesday In Stocks Crypto Cryptocurrencies had a disastrous crash on Tuesday as most were down over 20% and some were down over 40%. The total market capitalization peaked at $830 billion two weeks ago. The latest check is $496 billion which is an over 40% decline. This is great news for the eco
Earnings Estimates Improve The Most In At Least 21 Years If you’re bullish on stocks because earnings are strong, you are sitting in the catbird’s seat because the estimates have been expanding at an unusual pace. As you can see from the chart below, the 2018 full year estimate has increased since D
Fed Fund Futures’ Reaction To CPI The Fed fund futures for the March meeting show the chance of at least one rate hike went up from 68% before the data released to 73.7% after the data was released. Even though this is a small change, getting above the 70% threshold is pivotal because the Fed
CPI Beats Estimates Core CPI beat expectations as it was up 1.8% year over year. The estimates were for 1.7% growth which was what last month showed. This was the strongest gain in 11 months. The month over month increase was 0.3% which beat estimates for 0.2% growth. The headline CPI which includes
Optimism Is Hyperbolic Stocks rallied again Thursday as the S P 500 was up 0.7% and the Russell 2000 was up 1.72%. The S P 500 is now up 3.45% year to date. That’s an amazing month of returns and we’re only almost halfway through January. The CNN fear and greed index is at 77/100 which is
Yield Curve Expected To Flatten The latest difference between the 10 year bond yield and the 2 year bond yield is 58.44 basis points. That’s about 8 basis points of steepening from the bottom on January 4th. The CME website shows the next likely rate hike will be in March as there’s a 1.5% chance
End Of The Streak- Stocks Still Overbought The stock market finally ended its remarkable run to start the year, but stocks are still euphoric. This 0.11% selloff in the S P 500 only ends the streak; it doesn’t make stocks less overbought. As you can see from the chart below, the 14 day RSI on the
Zero Indicators In A Recession With the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecasting 2.7% GDP growth in Q4 and the blue chip signaling a similar result, it’s not surprising to see the chart below show that 0% of indicators are in a recession. The net percentage of indicators which are accelerating has improved a
