386 Days Above The 200 Day Moving Average The record for consecutive new highs to start a year has been tied in the Nasdaq and the S P 500 as stocks rallied again on Tuesday. As you can see from the chart below, the S P 500 is in the 2nd longest streak where it has been above
Stocks Have An Endless Bid The S P 500 was up again on Monday, foiling my thesis that there would be a correction this week. The S P 500 is up 5 out of 5 days this year for a gain of 2.77%. Some investors who outperformed last week already had gains which equal a good year in
Q4 Earnings Estimates Look Great This has been a remarkable pre-earnings period because the estimates have only moved down 0.3%. As you can see from the chart below, the earnings estimate change has been the best since when they were increased by 0.6% in Q4 2010. Q4 2010 was when the economy was jus
Working Age Men Show Improvement Even though the headline jobs report missed, there were enclaves of strength. As you can see in the bottom chart, the labor force participation rate among men aged 25-54 increased to 89% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is about a 1% improvement from the bottom w
Stocks Press Their Luck The first week of trading in 2018 ended with a bang as the S P 500 was up 0.7% on Friday. It is up 2.6% year to date already. At this impossible pace, most year end price targets will be met by the end of the month. I remain steady in my
Stocks Power Higher In 2018 The stock market continued on its torrid pace in 2018 as it was up again on Thursday. The S P 500 was up 0.4%. This is the third straight day with a record. The last time the S P 500 started off the year with 3 straight records was 1964 (it did it
2018 Starts Off With A Bang The stock market is looking like it’s about to do the impossible, have a repeat performance of 2017 which was in the 99th percentile in terms of risk versus return. The first two days have been great. In the S P 500, the first two days of 2017 were up
TV Sentiment For The Next 12 Months The chart below shows the financial TV sentiment for the economy, stocks, volatility, emerging markets, inflation, treasury yields, and commodities from 2013 to 2018. It’s amazing to see how this sentiment indicator had almost 100% optimism for inflation in 2017,
Global Equities EM Debt Should Have A Solid 2018 The chart below shows the major asset classes’ performance in 2017. Global equities were up 23.9%. I expect a smaller increase this year because equities in many markets were left for dead in 2016. Optimism is now high, meaning it’s tougher to meet ex
Momentum Growth Dominate 2017 Since 2017 is now over, let’s look at the performance of various assets to get an idea of where they may be headed. The table below shows the month, quarter, and year performance of the headline indexes, various factor investment strategies, and each sector. Unsurprisin
