Mortgage Rates - Stocks Set To Have Best Q1 Since 1998 Before getting into mortgage rates, let's review the current market. Technically speaking, each modest correction in the market is setting it up better to reach its record high. The big decline last Friday and the swings this week have kept the
Jobless Claims Plummet It’s clear that the labor market is in solid shape despite the weak February BLS report. The fact that jobless claims bottomed in September is meaningless because claims are so low now. I’m expecting the March labor report to be solid because of this. Estimates aren’t out yet,
Treasuries - Modest Decline In Stocks Big Rally In Treasuries Treasuries - There's a problem with anyone saying treasuries are knocking stocks down. Low yields aren’t causing stocks to fall. Instead, the same catalysts, such as declining economic growth, that cause bond yields to fall are causing st
Housing Market - Applications Spike Higher MBA applications report was fantastic in the week of March 22nd which was the first week of spring. On a weekly basis, the composite index increased 8.9% which was on top of a 1.6% increase. Purchase index was up 6% weekly after increasing 0.3%. Refinance i
Redbook Same Store Sales - Big Tuesday Rally Redbook same store sales - If the market’s goal is to rally past the September record high without getting too overbought, the market is acting smartly. Corrections in early March and last Friday took some froth out of it. CNN fear and greed index is only
National Activity Index Falls The February Chicago Fed national activity index should please the bears as it was -0.29. Technically, this index fell from last month because January’s reading was revised from -0.43 to -0.25. Somehow, the 3 month moving average was revised down from 0.16 to 0. Previou
Banks The Cheapest - Mixed Monday Action Banks the cheapest - Following the volatile Friday action, the stock market was mostly flat on Monday, with small caps outperforming. Those who thought the stock market would continue its weakness were mistaken as the market recovered late in the day. Most di
Slowing Economic Growth - Weak Markit Reports March flash Markit reports signaled economic weakness accelerated. This was a sharp put down of the rally in stocks this year. At some point, the slowdown needs to end for the stock market to reach its record high. That has been my issue with this rally.
German 10 Year Yield - Stocks Crater In A Much Needed Selloff German 10 Year Yield - Two of the most prominent reasons given as to why stocks sold off on Friday were the very weak German Markit manufacturing PMI and the flattening yield curve. They support the narrative that global growth is slowing
