Recession Indicators - Big Burst In Motor Vehicle Sales Before getting into Recession Indicators, let's review motor vehicle sales. There was a big burst in motor vehicle sales in May. This will help the Q2 GDP report significantly if it doesn’t get revised lower. It increases the likelihood we will
Oversold Rally Should Be Short-lived Looks like the Oversold Rally this week is sending stocks higher. Personally, I think stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday because they were oversold. I don’t think Powell’s comments, which I will get to later, had much to do with the rally. Stocks were oversold in
31 Month Low - Very Weak ISM PMI It was a 31 Month Low for the ISM PMI. Technically, the May manufacturing ISM PMI is consistent with 2.7% GDP growth. But it’s still a weak reading because it’s down from where it has been recently. To be clear, since estimates are for 1.7% GDP growth,
Nasdaq - Another Decline For Stocks Nasdaq is getting into correction territory. The stock market fell again on Monday, continuing this correction. S P 500 fell 0.28% after opening up. Nasdaq fell 1.61% because of regulatory issues which I will get to later. Russell 2000 increased 0.31%. VIX increas
Consumption Growth - While April Income Growth Improves Before getting into Consumption Growth, let's first review the April PCE report. Considering the weak economic reports that have come out in the past few weeks, the April PCE report was solid. This is before the tariffs were announced on consum
Tariff Fears Push Stocks Even Lower President Trump’s new 5% tariff on Mexican exports caused stocks to crater on Friday. To be clear, tariffs aren’t the only catalyst of this recent swoon in stocks. Stocks are falling because earnings estimates and economic reports have been putrid. That being said
Slight Improvement In Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index The May Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased slightly from 3 to 5. That missed estimates for 6, but considering the weak results from the Dallas Fed and Kansas City Fed, this shouldn’t be a disappointment. As you can see from the chart bel
Negative Evening Trade News Ruins Thursday Rally The stock market increased slightly on Thursday, but that doesn’t matter much because President Trump tweeted he will add a tariffs to Mexican imports. Trump’s tweets are getting more erratic by the day, making it so no investor is safe from the carna
Consumers Might Actually Be Confident In previous articles, I mentioned that consumer confidence might wane because of the newly enacted tariffs and the stock market correction. Consumer confidence is highly impacted by the stock market. That being said, a 5.5% decline isn’t a huge deal since consum
