10 Year Bond Yield - Stocks Reverse On Tuesday Before getting into the 10 Year Bond Yield, let's review the stock market. Finally, after a huge spike in June, the market appears to have hit a wall early in the trading session on Tuesday. S P 500 closed 0.8% below its morning high. Its morning peak w
Small Business Confidence - Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Slows Before getting into Small Business Confidence, let's review the Redbook. We go into every GDP report with the assumption that the consumer will drive GDP. Consumption drives about 2/3rds of economic growth. However, consumption growth
S P 500 - Another Rally, But Why? The S P 500 stock market rallied again on Monday as my bearishness in the past couple trading days has been misguided. I’m open to the possibility that this will be like 2016 when the economy turned around after a tough slowdown, but I don’t see evidence of that
2% Chance - Unemployment Indicator Shows No Recession There is only a 2% Chance that the economy is currently in a recession. One common recession indicator is the bottom in the unemployment rate. It’s not a terrible concept, but it’s unrefined. It was recently proven to be a misleading indicator. S
Disappointing May Employment We saw a Disappointing May Jobs Report come out this week. Job creation in May missed estimates by a lot. Job creation in April and March was revised lower, making this a bad report. May job creation was slightly lower than I expected, but was still better than the ADP r
Stocks Soar - The Perfect Day For Stocks Stocks soar and Friday was the perfect day. The jobs report was weak enough to allow the Fed to cut rates. But not weak enough to make investors seriously consider the possibility of a recession. Furthermore, President Trump made a trade deal with Mexico, pre
Mexican Trade Deal - Winning Streak Hits 4 Days On the hopes of a Mexican Trade Deal, the stock market rallied again on Thursday. Which wasn’t what I expected to occur. The market can go against you at any time if there is trade news. It’s debatable if the news on the Mexican negotiations even was
Weak ADP Report - Big May ADP Miss Let's review the Weak ADP report for May. It was a disaster as it missed estimates by the most since December 2008. There were 271,000 jobs created in March and only 27,000 jobs created in April. That missed estimates by 158,000. Normally, I would dismiss this repo
WTI Oil Down - This Is Still A Correction Before we talk about how the WTI Oil Down is affecting the market, let's first review the market. The stock market rallied on Wednesday. With this rally, much of the correction has been rescinded. It was never deep to begin with. The same recession risks are
