Option Bears Reloading as Bulls Feeling Spry
The bulls appear to be feeling like they've accomplished something as the market looks to be positive two days in a row. However, as the bulls have their moment, the bears are adding bearish options positions and rolling up into the strength. Let's look at some key ETFs that had unusual bearish options activity (XLB,…
Bring Back the Bear?
Is this small rally in the SPX sustainable, or are we about to enter a full-on bear market? Volume in the S&Ps included several days and was not very high. Week in and week out, the expected move is not rocking to the upside, pointing highly to a longer term bear market...
What Kills Markets First, Inflation or the FED?
--No easy path forward for the markets --FED will "break things" --lower volatility on heavy selling --SKEW low, obscure options volume in the SPX --yields inverted, bonds tanked and rebound --energy sees the economic slowdown coming --crypto stability evaporates --metals holding up in a strong dollar SPX Expected Move-- --last week-- 131.85 (expected move)…
Stocks Continue Trend Lower after the Fed: Your Post-Fed Update
After a surprise rally on the Fed Fund Rate increase and press conference from the Federal Reserve yesterday, the downtrend continued in price as equity futures sold off over 3% in Thursday's session. How many stocks joined the indexes at fresh new 52-week lows and what surprising group was on the leading edge of today's…
Fed Rides the Painted Pony on Rates as the Inflation Wheel Spins
The Fed kept policy in line with the recent rise in expectations with a 75 bp move. While the market received the news relatively well, the outlook is diminishing and the Fed can't seem to find a directing sign on the straight and narrow highway. Which means more Blood, Sweat and Tears for millenials who…
Your Stock and Sector Check-up before the Fed Day
We'll have the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference tomorrow afternoon and will see how high the Fed lifts the Fed Funds rate and more importantly what that will mean for key sectors and key stocks in the market - which segments will lift or fall the most? Find out what the #1…
Carnage Grips Hold in the Markets
Bonds and stocks tank as interest rates have now more than doubled since the start of the year. There is no coming back from this parabolic move in interest rates that impact every facet of the economy. There is serious risk in this market as volatility has exploded higher and liquidity has dried up. The…
Are Markets Headed to Uncharted Territory?
Inflation, Stagflation, Recession, Rising Rates-- --Sellers Return with a Vengeance --Expected Move and the 2 sigma beast --CPI too hot to handle --Bonds / Yield curve inverting 2yr vs 10yr --Big selling with a lack of volatility intensity --Volatility futures Inverting ? --Dollar explodes higher --Metals rebound --FOMC, does the FED matter? SPX Expected Move--…
Inflation Data Ahead! CPI Friday Breaking Us from the Range
The final hour of Thursday's trading session was a volatile sell-side swing that continued the downtrend in motion - all of it ahead of Friday's potentially market-moving CPI (Consumer Price Index) data and what it means about the state of the economy, the consumer, and the Fed Meeting next Wednesday. What target levels and sector…
Bonds Create the Perfect Storm for Fridays CPI
The S&P 500 ends today where it started the week. There's still a 100 point potential move higher or lower for the S&P. Where do we go from here?