Will This Volatility End with a Bang?
-Spuz taking 150-200 point moves in stride… not good! -Volatility box 3600-3800 -High correlation and concentration of liquidity -SPX, SPY, QQQ, VIX option volume approx 17 million -Gamma risk is at catastrophic levels -Energy complex -Thin red line in bonds -Dollar in a short squeeze? -Earnings, concerned about buy backs SPX Expected Move- -Last Week-…
Friday Focuses on Financials as CPI Surprises Today
This has been a volatile trading week already with Wednesday's Fed Minutes and today's CPI Inflation Data but with those behind us, we now shift our focus to earnings from major financial companies and how XLF is positioned at the moment. In tonight's video, we revisit the "Risk Reversal" idea that played out rapidly this…
Markets: Primed to Explode Higher but at Risk for a Crash!
It's all about the CPI number tomorrow. Now is the time to look at your risk whether you are long or short and make sure you are comfortable. The market can explode either way on the CPI report. Here's how to analyze your positions...
Fed Minutes and CPI set to Rock The Market!
Today was already a volatile Tuesday in the market with a rally turning to a reversal that led to new bear market lows printing in the SP500 and NASDAQ. The week is young; the Federal Reserve will release their Minutes which gives insight into their ideas about current and future inflation and interest rate policy…
Markets Begging Feds for a Redo
With the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, it's no wonder defense stocks rallied on Monday. The surprise was the drop in gold as a supposed inflation hedge. Amidst the madness, money managers are increasingly petitioning for the Fed to pivot as performance suffers. (XLP, XLU, PYPL, HYG, FCX, BX, PMT, XLU, AG)
Shots Fired - Are New Lows on Deck?
-Good jobs gone bad -Fed Probabilities a flyin' -Bonds on the edge of abyss -Low Beta equals high risk? XLU, VZ, PG -new leg of extreme volatility forthcoming? -MegaMarket Cap @ lows -earnings on deck SPX Expected Move - -last week - 121.11 (expected move) -next week - 124.50 (expected move)
Are You Ready for the Friday Jobs Report?
Friday gives us the big Non-Farm Payrolls or monthly "Jobs Report" and we're ready to go. In tonight's video, we highlight the volatility and potential expected move ranges to look for on any surprises before the market opens tomorrow. We also take a quick look at ongoing trends in the Dollar, Interest Rates, and Bonds…
Price Action In Markets Screams Considerable Risk is Prevalent
Whipsaw price action in the S&P 500 today as buyers eventually came in to send the S&P to a 2 standard deviation move on the week. With everyone looking at this as the largest move up since the covid crash here's why considerable risk remains.
The Risk Reversal is Playing Out but How Far Could it Go?
Stocks rallied roughly 5% in the last two sessions as the "Risk Reversal" we discussed in last week's video is coming to life. But how far will it go and what are we watching specifically at the end of the week? Find out in tonight's Theo video update...
Hope for Fed Pivot Helps Stocks Despite Data
Are we back to what's good is bad and bad is good? It sure appeared so as ISM Manufacturing New Orders slipped into contraction and Apple expects App Store purchases to decline. What's about to lead the way in the short-term recovery? (AAPL, XLU, JPM, OXY, TSLA, PCG, KO)...