Will the Rally withstand CPI?
The big bad binary event will be tomorrow as CPI is released. This pivotal data point can send the market screaming in either direction. Here's what you need to know before the major market event...
Market Awaits the CPI and Financial Earnings - Be Ready!
In tonight's video update, we focus on the upcoming big events this week surrounding Thursday's CPI (Consumer Price Index) pre-market announcement and then Friday's focus on earnings from key Financial Sector stocks. In addition, we pinpoint which stocks are leading the rally with double-digit gains so far in 2023 and which smaller number of stocks…
Tech-Led Rally Fizzles with Powell and CPI on Deck This Week
It started out so promising with a large rally in semiconductors. However, the optimism faded as the reality of Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Tuesday and CPI data on Thursday. While the market remains more bullishly biased as volatility-based indicators aren't peaked, it's still a wildcard if the Fed pulls the rug and CPI disappoints.…
More Bull? Or Prepare for the Bear?
-Trade is sketchy…fast, broken -Jobs/durable goods -Rates / financials -Binary range is back 3800/3900 -Careful with your allocations, coin flip! Get your trade on-- This week's Profits and Losses -Covering short premium for 50% -Catapult TGT vs. /ES -Inflection Point Spread micros SPX Expected Move -last week - 84.01 (expected move 4 day week) -next…
Reading the Jobs Report Crystal Ball
In tonight's video we discuss how ADP Jobs data and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be predictive in the Federal NonFarm Payroll data. We also highlight the predictive power of employment data on future Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Feeling the Wrath of the FED?
A blistering rally into the close doesn't shake off the fact that volatility still rules the markets and continues to show us just how dangerous trade can actually be, especially on an intraday basis. Tune in as Don breaks down today's tape and explains why we all must, "tread lightly" in the days and weeks…
2023 Kick-off with Apple Losing $2T with Big Option Trades on GLD and XLE
After 2022, many were hoping for an early reversal in 2023. After an early rally, stocks like Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) began to drag the market lower, losing its $2 trillion market cap in the process. While the tenor was more bearish, the late-day rally found the market close to where it finished 2022. During…
Can you handle another year of extreme volatility?
Volatility will persist— —Dodd Frank —Volcker rule —bona fide hedging —cost of carry will pressure dealers —FED influence; we are not at zero% anymore! What will work in the new year— —Sell premium —reduce risk via actively hedging —catapult and infection point spreads Get your trade on-- This week's Profits and Losses -YTD P/L -New…
Rising on Retail Traders
In todays evening video, we reviewed the signs of today's rally being driven by retain traders and not institutions. We also reviewed Monetary Supply (M2) and Inflation Data on the economic tab. We noted the current M2 and PCE is indicating we are headed to a deflationary environment in 2023.
Unrelenting Selling into Year End
Stocks continue to sell as 2022 comes winding down. The S&P is a short distance away from the lower edge of the weekly expected which also coincides with the top of the next volatility box. The next 2 days will be crucial as it will determine if stocks can hold or if the S&P breaks…