Stagflation's Two Warning Signs
Blake Young just identified a commodity divergence that points straight to stagflation. Crude oil blew through resistance at $78 today and hit $81.04 while copper dropped 1.74% and is flashing sell signals. Rising energy costs plus falling copper demand is the textbook stagflation setup. Inflation without growth. Blake has been warning about an oil topping…
Nobody's Buying This Rally
The S&P 500 rallied 70 handles today. The expected move priced in exactly $69. The market called it to the penny. That precision should comfort you. It doesn't comfort me. Despite a 160 point bounce off Tuesday's lows, the volatility futures have not normalized. They are not even close. The term structure from April through…
The Bear Just Flipped Bullish
Gianni Di Poce has been bearish since the end of January. Today, he started buying. The reason comes down to one chart that changes everything about this pullback. After the Iran attack sent futures gapping lower over the weekend, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since late November. The Dow dropped to levels…
Markets Aren't Pricing Iran In
The U.S. initiated a conflict with Iran over the weekend. Brandon Chapman just broke down why the S&P 500's flat session is the most dangerous signal of the day. Oil spiked 8%. Treasuries sold off hard. Gold rallied. The S&P 500 moved 0.01%. That tells you the equity market has not priced in what happens…
99 Reasons to Sell… and SPUZ Ain’t One
The VIX almost hit 22 today. The last time it was there, the S&P 500 was trading at 6750. Today it's at 6840. Volatility is pricing in risk that the index hasn't acknowledged yet. That disconnect is the single most important signal in the market right now. The S&P 500 has been trapped in a…
Why Are People Buying Groceries on Credit
Blake Young just flagged a stat that stopped me cold. Roughly 60% of Klarna's buy now, pay later volume is being used to buy groceries. When consumers are financing their food, the financial companies holding that debt are in trouble. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been stuck in a range all month. Volume is getting…
NVIDIA Won't Save This Market
NVIDIA earnings are due out after the bell today. Everyone expects them to save the rally. I think they might actually make things worse. The S&P 500 is pinned in a 100-point range between 6850 and 6950. We've been bouncing between those levels like a pinball for weeks. Tech is deeply fractured right now. Capital…
Semis Hit Highs Before NVIDIA
The semiconductor index is on the verge of its highest daily close in history. That move is happening one day before NVIDIA reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. Gianni Di Poce just broke down what this setup means and why the next 24 hours could define the direction of this market. He is sitting at…
Are Financials Breaking the Market?
Financials just dropped 3.3% in a single session. Brandon Chapman has been tracking a wave of institutional put buying in the banking sector for weeks. Today, that gamma pressure finally showed up in price. XLF broke to its lowest level since June of last year. KRE, the regional banking ETF, fell 4.4%. Brandon flagged concerns…
This Calm Is a Trap
The S&P 500 is trapped in the tightest volatility box I've seen in my career. Months of trade compressed into a 100 point range on a nearly $7,000 product. That's barely a 1.5% band. And the market refuses to leave it. This week was a four day session with a $144 expected move. We used…