Mortgage Applications Increase & Job Cuts Fall
Strong MBA Applications Growth The only way you can say the housing market signaled a recession is if you say the late 2018-early 2019 weakness was the warning sign. However, that’s dubious because housing is strong now. If the consumer really was in the tank, we wouldn’t see cycle highs in new and existing home…
Worst Start To A Q4 Ever?
Terrible Start To Q4 Q4 has started with back to back sharply down days. Many investors predicted the VIX would touch 20 this month and it hit 20 on the 2nd trading day. VIX was up 2 points to 20.56 because the S&P 500 fell 1.79%. The S&P 500 has never started a Q4 down at…
Private Sector Job Creation Misses Estimates Stoking Recession Fears
Very Weak Chicago Fed Business Barometer Recession fears are back on the table with the latest weak ISM manufacturing PMI. The market under-reacted to weak economic reports earlier in the year; now it is overreacting to them. Q3 was always going to be a weak quarter as I highlighted at the start of the year…
Stocks Fall Because Of Weak ISM Manufacturing PMI
Stocks Fall Sharply On Disappointing ISM PMI September ISM PMI was the weakest since June 2009. This sent stocks careening lower after they had initially rallied slightly because of the encouraging Markit PMI. It’s clear which PMI the market follows the closest. Markit PMI has double the sample size, but traders and algos don’t care. …
Residential Construction Improves: Housing Set To Have A Great Q4
Strong Redbook Growth The order of importance in terms of measurements of consumer spending from least important to most important are the following: Redbook, consumer confidence, retail sales, and PCE. However, the Redbook report is the most updated, so I follow it. Redbook results show sales growth from the last week of September, while the…
October Should Have A Lot Of Fireworks
Q3 Ends On A High Note With its modest rally on Monday, the stock market closed out the quarter positively, continuing this great year. S&P 500 moved closer to 3,000 which it has been stuck near for weeks. Anyone who claims to look at stock returns on a yearly basis instead of year to date…
ISM Manufacturing PMI Should Be Near 50
Slightly Improved Consumer Confidence Shocking August consumer confidence reading which caused everyone to discuss the impact of tariffs was updated on Friday. It showed a modest improvement. At first, the University of Michigan index seemed important because August retail sales growth was strong. With the weakness in real consumption growth in the PCE report, many…
Investors Worry - Will The White House Block All US Investments In China?
Stocks End The Week Lower Stocks fell on Friday because the White House is considering blocking all US investments in China. To me, this seems like a lot of speculation and not much actual news. This report stated the discussion is in its preliminary stages and nothing has been decided. There also isn’t a time…
Consumption Growth Disappoints, Sending Q3 GDP Growth Estimates Lower
Real Consumption Growth Falls In August, real disposable personal income growth was solid, but real consumption growth weakened. That signals a decline in confidence as was shown in the August University of Michigan report. Consumption growth in the PCE report wasn’t consistent with the solid retail sales report. As you can see from the chart…
China and America To Meet In D.C. On October 10th & 11th
Slight Decline On Thursday: Peloton IPOs Stocks declined slightly on Thursday, although, I think they would have risen if the news about the timing of the U.S. China talks had come out before the close. Specifically, the S&P 500 fell 0.24% which put it near where it has been for most of the month. One…