All Market Bull and No Bear?
Markets continue to smash expected moves Low VIX ? —Volatility futures are in massive contango —VVIX —big time skew still prevalent Why are interest rates falling? —xlf —xle —bond outlook Strategy Session-- --Sell premium --shift risk to underlyings with higher IVs --mitigate downside exposure with VIX vol spreads SPX Expected Move --last week-- 53.25 (expected…
Summer Trade or is Volatility Forthcoming?
Markets continue to rotate out of financials and into tech. Is this what we should expect all summer or will volatility pick up? Find out in tonight's crucial video newsletter update…
Are Markets Displaying Inefficient Behavior?
Expected Move Breeches!--SPX--IWM--QQQ--XLF--XLE--TLT Rotation and Bifurcation comeback? Are rising rates going to become an issue again? Stress Test! Banks and Buybacks Dollar reservations Crypto cracks not proliferating… Volatility Dropped but the “tail risk” is still wagging--VVIX--SKEW--Back month premium Front and Back Month Premium--decay in the X-Mas Tree Ratio Spread SPX Expected Move --last week-- 90.48…
Expected Move Slop Fest
The markets next move hangs on the edge of the expected move. This why the expected is so important and what you should expect next...
Is the Goldilocks Market Dead?
Market Update----FED triggers market vol--Financials Crushed--Dollar Bid is likely a fear trade, metals suffer--Bond Bid causes confusion- reflation trade dead--Correlation consistent? Volatility Shock?--VIX reacts mildly--Vol futures not inverted--VVIX--prolonged vol SKEW Flyin'--highest recorded SKEW--OTM index puts--Xmas tree/ratio skew trades in play SPX Expected Move --last week-- 59.33 (expected move)--next week-- 90.48
Over the FED and Through the Volatility
The Fed spooks the markets as they announce 2 potential rate hikes in 2023. For better or worse this moved all markets. Let's dive in…
Is Low Market Volatility Transitory?
Market Update----CPI was HOT the market move was NOT!--Financials took a beating--Tech rallied but not enough to move SP500--Russell gets Meat-loafed! Jay Powell and the FED are Back!--FED meeting/announcement on WED--Bonds once again take center stage--Front week VOL in Bonds elevated-- the volatility catalyst Volatility is Transitory!--Dollar - is this bid the turning point?--SKEW -…
Massively Unchanged But Here Comes the Volatility
If the markets seem quiet to you don't worry because volatility is coming. Tomorrow morning a much awaited CPI number comes out. Is inflation heating up or cooling off? This will determine the next major move for the stock and bond market. Here's what you need to know before the binary event…
Energy Ripe for a Pullback? Here's a few Trade Ideas
As the market continues sideway action let's look at the XLE for the possible next rotation out of. Here's a risk defined trade idea if it made sense for you…
Is this the Start of a Major Upside Breakout?
Market Update----Jobs Number says Goldilocks is Back!--Financials and Energy leading markets--Tech Lags--Vol Crush Bonds Breaking Out?--bonds/rates drive market dynamics--Tech--Financials Skew Continues to Dominate--markets are pricing tail risk--VVIX, hedgers are still prevalent--premium selling spectacular, back months SPX Expected Move--last week-- 50.73 (expected move)--next week-- 53.14