This morning gave us everything at once—Alphabet ripping on its antitrust win, crude breaking down, semis hanging by a thread, and bond yields hitting levels nobody seems to care about. Underneath the noise, leverage and collateral are still the heartbeat of this market—and if you’re not watching that, you’re missing the real game.
Key Takeaways
Google headlines mask deeper cracks
- Alphabet’s antitrust ruling sent the stock to new highs, lifting tech benchmarks.
- But this looks more like a “sell the news” setup than fresh leadership—don’t chase it blindly.
Semiconductors sitting on key levels
- SOXL is testing its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom all look stretched, which sets up reversion trades if momentum fades.
Leverage is the real story
- Short-term T-bills have become the collateral of choice, driving systemic leverage to 25-to-1.
- If short-duration yields spike, that collateral chain breaks—and forced selling hits equities fast.
What I’m Watching
I’m tracking SOXL and SMH closely—any slip below their 200-day would be a tell that semis are losing their footing. Gold’s at nosebleed levels, so I’d rather wait for pullbacks than chase strength. On the rotation side, names like Macy’s and FCX showed why cheap, real-asset plays keep working. And SoundHound looks interesting above its 20-day moving average—short squeeze potential is real if momentum clicks.
Headlines are noise. Collateral, leverage, and momentum are the only signals that matter. If you’re not watching the repo market and short-duration debt, you’re not trading reality—you’re trading the distraction.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE