Alright, folks. We’ve got a lot to unpack today, and you already know where this is going. We start with the latest CPI print, which came in at 2.8% year-over-year, with a 0.2% monthly increase for February. Now, why does this matter? Because every trader, investor, and algo on Wall Street is asking the same question: What’s the Fed gonna do next?
Let’s dig in.
Key Takeaways:
🔥 CPI Print Came in “Pretty Good” (But Not Great)
- 2.8% annual inflation, slightly cooler than expected.
- February’s 0.2% monthly increase—we’ll take it, but services inflation is still sticky.
💰 Fed Rate Cuts? Not So Fast...
- Remember last year when they were calling for six rate cuts in 2025? Yeah, that’s slowed down.
- Inflation’s stickiness (especially in services) makes the Fed hesitant to pivot too quickly.
- Markets are watching the CME Fed Watch Tool like hawks—we’ll break down the probabilities.
📊 Market Reaction: What You Need to Watch
- Equities are reacting, bond yields are moving, and traders are adjusting their rate cut bets.
- The key to watch? How the Fed positions itself ahead of the next meeting—if inflation stays stubborn, rate cut hopes will keep getting pushed out.
🚀 The Big Picture: Positioning for What’s Next
- Inflation remains a headwind, but the economy is still grinding along.
- Traders and investors need to stay flexible, because the Fed’s next move will set the tone for Q2.
- I’ll walk you through where the real opportunities are—because it’s not just about the Fed, it’s about how you trade it.
That’s where we stand. Now let’s get into the data and figure out where the real trades are. Buckle up.
Until next time,
Garret Baldwin
TheoTRADE