The tape came in hot today with one story dominating the flow: Nvidia. This isn’t just a stock anymore—it’s the market. With over 1,200 ETFs holding it, the entire system feels like it’s hostage to whether NVDA beats, misses, or sneezes. Add in Fed politics, rate cut expectations, and geopolitical noise out of India, and this morning had all the ingredients for chaos.
Key Takeaways
Momentum levels flashing green
- All 11 S&P sectors opened positive, with breadth improving from just two weeks ago.
- But watch the FNGD and UVXY—if they cross their 50-day MAs, it’s a sign leverage is unwinding and volatility is coming.
Nvidia is the entire market
- With 1,200 ETFs holding NVDA, every tick ripples across semis, megacaps, and the S&P itself.
- Expectations are sky-high, and anything short of perfection risks a chain reaction of selling.
Fed politics shifting into overdrive
- Lisa Cook’s removal and Powell’s looming exit mean the market is already pricing in aggressive rate cuts into 2026.
- Rate cuts juice liquidity and leverage, but they also light a fuse under future inflation.
What I’m Watching
Nvidia earnings will decide not just semiconductors but the tone of the entire market into September. I’m also watching leveraged ETF tells like SOXS—any break above the 20- or 50-day moving average is a flashing warning sign for semis and AI-linked names. On the macro side, the Fed’s political drama is becoming a bigger market driver than inflation prints, and India tariffs add another geopolitical layer to watch in commodities and EM flows.
This is the kind of market where one ticker—NVDA—dictates the fate of trillions. Don’t fight it, don’t overthink it. Stay disciplined, trade what the tape gives you, and remember: when leverage unwinds, it’s always faster than anyone expects.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE