Today was one of those “everything and nothing” mornings. Momentum sat flat, headlines were noisy, and the Fed circus got another act with Lisa Cook’s exit. Underneath it all, though, the tape kept rewarding liquidity—and as long as the S&P holds above its 20-day, the party goes on.
Key Takeaways
Momentum flat, but still bullish bias
- The S&P 500 remains above its 20-day moving average, signaling there’s enough liquidity to keep the melt-up alive.
- Remember: it takes constant inflows to hold the line—passive money, leverage, and retirement flows are doing the heavy lifting.
Fed politics shifting—rates are the target
- Cook’s departure and Powell’s likely exit point to a more accommodative Fed. Rate cuts, refinancing chatter, even T-bill rollovers—all of it screams liquidity.
- That’s bullish for banks, housing, real assets, and metals like gold and silver.
Energy rotation flashing short-term setups
- Upstream oil names like Apache (APA) hit overbought territory. Garrett flagged a put spread setup ($23/$21 strike) for a clean downside play.
- Meanwhile, momentum indicators (RSI + MFI) on OILU show that energy’s not ready to rip higher just yet.
What I’m Watching
Nvidia earnings are the next catalyst. With NVDA chopping ahead of its print, reversion trades around the VWAP and standard deviations remain prime hunting ground. I’m also watching bonds closely—the 10-year creeping toward 4.5% could start pressuring collateral and leverage in the system. And banks (XLF) are worth monitoring, because if this Fed pivot chatter sticks, regionals could be stealth beneficiaries.
We’re acting like it’s 1999 again—but liquidity only papers over cracks for so long. Keep trading what’s in front of you, use momentum lines as your north star, and remember: when the unwind comes, it comes fast.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE