The market keeps grinding higher, shutdown headlines be damned. It’s the kind of tape that punishes overthinkers — momentum is the only game in town right now, and it’s messy, erratic, but alive. I walked through why the regional banks are flashing stress again, how oil just can’t make up its mind, and why some of these “official” Fed notes are comedy wrapped in bureaucracy.
Key Takeaways
Regional banks are on thin ice
- FAZ is creeping over its 20-day and hovering near the 50 — the same setup we saw before the SVB collapse.
- No headlines yet, but stress in liquidity never advertises itself until after the fact.
Oil is back on the bounce — but trade it tight
- Crude flipped from oversold to showing short-duration momentum; XLE, XOM, CVX, and “crème brûlée” (aka SLB) are the tickers to watch.
- Keep stops razor-thin. These are two-day trades at best, not long hauls.
Government shutdown theater won’t stop markets
- Futures are shrugging off D.C. dysfunction — Evercore even managed to write 80 words to say “Fed might cut because they don’t have jobs data.”
- The bigger story is liquidity: as long as money flows, equities grind higher, even against weak hiring data.
Momentum traders have an edge here
- Tesla’s leveraged ETFs (TSLL) are textbook intraday momentum plays — you don’t need options if you’re disciplined with crossovers.
- Watch RSI and MFI levels across indices: oversold signals are cleaner than the endless noise from pundits.
What I’m Watching
Netflix looks like it’s heading toward a Bud Light–style reckoning, and I want to see how bad it gets before insiders step in. Meanwhile, regional banks remain the canary — Zion and KRE in particular. If they crack below support, that’s when this melt-up could snap. Energy is the other wildcard: momentum can carry XLE for a few sessions, but sanctions headlines and OPEC games can reverse it in an instant.
This tape is built on liquidity and speculation, not fundamentals. That means it’ll reward traders who stay nimble and punish anyone married to a story. Don’t fall in love — stay sharp, take the cash, and be ready for the next setup.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE