It’s one of those mornings that starts with chasing the dog, breaking fences, and drinking terrible coffee — but the market doesn’t care about chaos. We’ve got action in AI, gold, semis, and the Fed quietly dropping a bombshell about liquidity. Let’s break it down.
Key Takeaways
AI momentum wobbling but intact
- Nvidia cracked under its 50-day SMA yesterday before bouncing back this morning. The AI trade still has legs, driven by CapEx spending and semis like AMD and Micron.
- One solid earnings report from a chipmaker can lift the entire AI complex — the sector remains the heartbeat of this market.
The Fed quietly hinted at ending QT
- Powell’s comment about “approaching that point” means balance sheet runoff is nearing an end. Translation: liquidity injection is coming back.
- When QT ends, QE isn’t far behind — they just won’t call it that. Expect liquidity-sensitive assets like gold, Bitcoin, and silver to continue ripping.
Gold and commodities catching fire
- Central banks keep buying gold, and ETFs are seeing record inflows. Liquidity-sensitive plays like GLD, GDX, and NEM are back in demand.
- Silver, palladium, and even cocoa are joining the rally — this is where capital runs when the Fed softens.
Rare earths back in focus
- China tightening export controls is reigniting inflation fears and boosting plays like MP Materials and REMX.
- Europe’s “green pivot” just deepened the supply crunch. The U.S. may soon declare a mining emergency — watch PANL and other Arctic logistics names.
What I’m Watching
Semiconductors are holding the line for now, but Nvidia’s 50-day remains the line in the sand. Gold’s breakout could accelerate if the Fed follows through on halting QT. Energy looks due for a relief bounce after India’s move on Russian oil. Regional banks like Citi are quietly showing signs of life, with spreads on the 87.50/90 range offering high-probability setups.
The Fed might not call it QE, but the market will trade it like QE. Financial stability is the real mandate — not inflation, not jobs. When stress hits repo markets, the printers warm up. Liquidity always wins, and gold knows it first.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE